| Date | Rank | Away Team | Record | Score | Rank | Home Team | Record | Score | Neutral Site | Playoff Game | Outcome | Expected Outcome | Expected Probability |
Actual Deviation |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/2/2026 | #204 | TAM C. Christi | 0-0 | @ Texas St | L | Texas St (+0.45) | 48% | |||||||
| 11/10/2026 | Texas St | #152 | @ UTRGV | 0-0 | L | UTRGV (-9.10) | 20% | |||||||
| 11/13/2026 | #210 | Southern Miss | 0-0 | @ Texas St | W | Texas St (-1.50) | 56% | |||||||
| 11/15/2026 | Texas St | #338 | @ UT San Antonio | 0-0 | W | UT San Antonio (+2.58) | 60% | |||||||
| 11/18/2026 | #285 | Incarnate Word | 0-0 | @ Texas St | W | Texas St (-2.75) | 60% | |||||||
| 11/22/2026 | #72 | McNeese St | 0-0 | @ Texas St | L | Texas St (+7.27) | 25% | |||||||
| 11/25/2026 | #348 | Alcorn St | 0-0 | Texas St | ✓ | W | Texas St (-7.96) | 77% | ||||||
| 11/27/2026 | Texas St | #186 | @ Louisiana Tech | 0-0 | L | Louisiana Tech (-5.81) | 29% | |||||||
| 11/29/2026 | #250 | Nicholls St | 0-0 | @ Texas St | W | Texas St (-2.51) | 60% | |||||||
| 12/2/2026 | #186 | Louisiana Tech | 0-0 | @ Texas St | L | Texas St (+0.15) | 49% | |||||||
| 12/5/2026 | Texas St | #4 | @ Houston | 0-0 | L | Houston (-29.99) | 1% | |||||||
| 12/8/2026 | #152 | UTRGV | 0-0 | @ Texas St | L | Texas St (+2.88) | 39% | |||||||
| 12/13/2026 | #129 | North Texas | 0-0 | Texas St | ✓ | L | Texas St (+5.79) | 29% | ||||||
| 12/16/2026 | #123 | San Francisco | 0-0 | @ Texas St | L | Texas St (+4.18) | 34% | |||||||
| 12/19/2026 | #312 | TX Southern | 0-0 | @ Texas St | W | Texas St (-6.88) | 74% | |||||||
PROJECTED RECORD 17-821.9% 26-921.3% 38-716.6% 45-1015.1% 59-69.1% 64-117.7% Chance of winning all 15 remaining games: <0.1% | ||||||||||||||