| Date | Rank | Away Team | Record | Score | Rank | Home Team | Record | Score | Neutral Site | Playoff Game | Outcome | Expected Outcome | Expected Probability |
Actual Deviation |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/2/2026 | #316 | NJIT | 0-0 | @ Dayton | W | Dayton (-21.60) | 97% | |||||||
| 11/7/2026 | #328 | N Illinois | 0-0 | @ Dayton | W | Dayton (-21.52) | 96% | |||||||
| 11/10/2026 | #177 | Siena | 0-0 | @ Dayton | W | Dayton (-11.61) | 86% | |||||||
| 11/14/2026 | #50 | Cincinnati | 0-0 | @ Dayton | L | Dayton (+0.74) | 47% | |||||||
| 11/17/2026 | #287 | C Michigan | 0-0 | @ Dayton | W | Dayton (-16.02) | 92% | |||||||
| 11/20/2026 | Dayton | #130 | Utah | 0-0 | ✓ | W | Utah (+2.27) | 59% | ||||||
| 11/22/2026 | Dayton | #74 | Northwestern | 0-0 | ✓ | L | Northwestern (-2.12) | 42% | ||||||
| 11/29/2026 | Dayton | #133 | Memphis | 0-0 | ✓ | W | Memphis (+3.40) | 63% | ||||||
| 12/2/2026 | #329 | Loyola MD | 0-0 | @ Dayton | W | Dayton (-19.86) | 96% | |||||||
| 12/5/2026 | Dayton | #70 | @ Florida St | 0-0 | L | Florida St (-4.71) | 33% | |||||||
| 12/12/2026 | #44 | South Florida | 0-0 | @ Dayton | W | Dayton (-0.09) | 50% | |||||||
| 12/15/2026 | #152 | UTRGV | 0-0 | @ Dayton | W | Dayton (-8.03) | 77% | |||||||
| 12/19/2026 | Dayton | #91 | @ Liberty | 0-0 | W | Liberty (+0.79) | 53% | |||||||
| 12/23/2026 | #310 | SE Louisiana | 0-0 | @ Dayton | W | Dayton (-16.79) | 93% | |||||||
PROJECTED RECORD 110-426.2% 29-522.1% 311-320.4% 48-612.4% 512-29.9% 67-74.6% Chance of winning all 14 remaining games: 0.3% | ||||||||||||||