| Date | QB1 Out? |
Rank | Away Team | Record | Score | QB1 Out? |
Rank | Home Team | Record | Score | Neutral Site | Playoff Game | Outcome | Expected Outcome | Expected Probability |
Actual Deviation |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8/30/2026 | #55 | Memphis | 5-2 | 27 | @ UNLV | 21 | L | UNLV (-0.44) | 0% | -6.44 | ||||||
| 9/6/2026 | UNLV | 21 | #174 | @ Hawai'i | 1-6 | 6 | W | Hawai'i (-0.78) | 100% | 15.78 | ||||||
| 9/12/2026 | UNLV | 6 | #42 | @ North Texas | 4-2 | 44 | L | North Texas (-11.05) | 0% | -26.95 | ||||||
| 9/26/2026 | UNLV | 38 | ✓ | #182 | @ Akron | 1-6 | 10 | W | Akron (+8.64) | 100% | 19.36 | |||||
| 10/3/2026 | #95 | California | 3-4 | 31 | @ UNLV | 39 | W | UNLV (-3.81) | 100% | 4.19 | ||||||
| 10/10/2026 | #57 | North Dakota State | 6-1 | 7 | @ UNLV | 13 | W | UNLV (+6.68) | 100% | 12.68 | ||||||
| 10/17/2026 | UNLV | 31 | ✓ | #65 | @ Air Force | 5-1 | 41 | L | Air Force (-1.49) | 0% | -8.51 | |||||
| 11/1/2026 | #175 | Northern Illinois | 0-6 | @ UNLV | W | UNLV (-15.74) | 83% | |||||||||
| 11/8/2026 | #120 | Wyoming | 4-3 | @ UNLV | W | UNLV (-9.72) | 73% | |||||||||
| 11/15/2026 | UNLV | #58 | @ New Mexico | 5-1 | L | New Mexico (-12.04) | 23% | |||||||||
| 11/22/2026 | UNLV | #110 | @ San José State | 4-3 | W | San José State (+4.88) | 62% | |||||||||
| 11/29/2026 | #131 | Nevada | 2-4 | @ UNLV | W | UNLV (-5.77) | 64% | |||||||||
PROJECTED RECORD 17-538.4% 28-428.0% 36-622.0% 45-75.5% 59-35.5% 64-80.5% Chance of winning all 5 remaining games: 5.5% | ||||||||||||||||