| Date | QB1 Out? |
Rank | Away Team | Record | Score | QB1 Out? |
Rank | Home Team | Record | Score | Neutral Site | Playoff Game | Outcome | Expected Outcome | Expected Probability |
Actual Deviation |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8/29/2026 | San José State | 26 | #23 | @ USC | 6-1 | 42 | L | USC (-31.98) | 0% | 15.98 | ||||||
| 9/4/2026 | San José State | 27 | #134 | @ Eastern Michigan | 4-4 | 21 | W | Eastern Michigan (-2.21) | 100% | 8.21 | ||||||
| 9/13/2026 | #190 | Cal Poly | 3-4 | 20 | @ San José State | 30 | W | San José State (-10.48) | 100% | -0.48 | ||||||
| 9/20/2026 | #76 | Fresno State | 4-3 | 26 | @ San José State | 10 | L | San José State (+4.38) | 0% | -11.62 | ||||||
| 10/4/2026 | San José State | 20 | #174 | @ Hawai'i | 1-6 | 16 | W | Hawai'i (-2.73) | 100% | 6.73 | ||||||
| 10/10/2026 | #120 | Wyoming | 4-3 | 16 | @ San José State | 13 | L | San José State (-5.95) | 0% | -8.95 | ||||||
| 10/18/2026 | San José State | 24 | #195 | @ UTEP | 1-6 | 11 | W | UTEP (+8.23) | 100% | 4.77 | ||||||
| 10/24/2026 | San José State | #131 | @ Nevada | 2-4 | L | Nevada (-4.07) | 40% | |||||||||
| 10/31/2026 | #58 | New Mexico | 5-1 | @ San José State | L | San José State (+15.35) | 18% | |||||||||
| 11/7/2026 | #175 | Northern Illinois | 0-6 | @ San José State | W | San José State (-7.91) | 69% | |||||||||
| 11/15/2026 | San José State | #65 | @ Air Force | 5-1 | L | Air Force (-12.10) | 23% | |||||||||
| 11/22/2026 | #82 | UNLV | 4-3 | @ San José State | L | San José State (+4.88) | 38% | |||||||||
| 11/27/2026 | #57 | North Dakota State | 6-1 | @ San José State | L | San José State (+8.79) | 29% | |||||||||
PROJECTED RECORD 16-735.1% 27-625.4% 35-822.9% 48-59.5% 54-95.2% 69-41.7% Chance of winning all 6 remaining games: 0.1% | ||||||||||||||||