| Date | QB1 Out? |
Rank | Away Team | Record | Score | QB1 Out? |
Rank | Home Team | Record | Score | Neutral Site | Playoff Game | Outcome | Expected Outcome | Expected Probability |
Actual Deviation |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8/29/2026 | #88 | Jacksonville State | 5-2 | 7 | @ North Dakota State | 33 | W | North Dakota State (-19.16) | 100% | 6.84 | ||||||
| 9/5/2026 | #225 | Fordham | 2-6 | 0 | @ North Dakota State | 38 | W | North Dakota State (-50.98) | 100% | -12.98 | ||||||
| 9/13/2026 | North Dakota State | 38 | #65 | @ Air Force | 5-1 | 32 | W | Air Force (+5.71) | 100% | 0.29 | ||||||
| 9/20/2026 | North Dakota State | 31 | #224 | @ Sacramento State | 1-6 | 10 | W | Sacramento State (+17.88) | 100% | 3.12 | ||||||
| 10/3/2026 | #120 | Wyoming | 4-3 | 0 | @ North Dakota State | 28 | W | North Dakota State (-22.24) | 100% | 5.76 | ||||||
| 10/10/2026 | North Dakota State | 7 | #82 | @ UNLV | 4-3 | 13 | L | UNLV (+6.68) | 0% | -12.68 | ||||||
| 10/17/2026 | #131 | Nevada | 2-4 | 17 | @ North Dakota State | 31 | W | North Dakota State (-13.96) | 100% | 0.04 | ||||||
| 10/25/2026 | North Dakota State | #58 | @ New Mexico | 5-1 | L | New Mexico (-8.28) | 30% | |||||||||
| 10/31/2026 | #195 | UTEP | 1-6 | @ North Dakota State | W | North Dakota State (-26.16) | 93% | |||||||||
| 11/15/2026 | North Dakota State | #174 | @ Hawai'i | 1-6 | W | Hawai'i (+10.64) | 74% | |||||||||
| 11/21/2026 | #175 | Northern Illinois | 0-6 | @ North Dakota State | W | North Dakota State (-21.72) | 90% | |||||||||
| 11/27/2026 | North Dakota State | #110 | @ San José State | 4-3 | W | San José State (+8.79) | 71% | |||||||||
PROJECTED RECORD 110-243.2% 29-332.9% 311-113.4% 48-49.4% 57-51.0% 66-6<0.1% Chance of winning all 5 remaining games: 13.4% | ||||||||||||||||