| Date | QB1 Out? |
Rank | Away Team | Record | Score | QB1 Out? |
Rank | Home Team | Record | Score | Neutral Site | Playoff Game | Outcome | Expected Outcome | Expected Probability |
Actual Deviation |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9/6/2026 | #137 | Western Kentucky | 3-4 | 14 | @ Nevada | 49 | W | Nevada (+2.18) | 100% | 37.18 | ||||||
| 9/13/2026 | #84 | Montana State | 6-1 | 20 | @ Nevada | 7 | L | Nevada (+7.93) | 0% | -5.07 | ||||||
| 9/19/2026 | Nevada | 20 | #159 | @ Middle Tennessee | 3-3 | 27 | L | Middle Tennessee (+2.72) | 0% | -9.72 | ||||||
| 9/26/2026 | #65 | Air Force | 5-1 | 36 | @ Nevada | 33 | L | Nevada (+2.21) | 0% | -0.79 | ||||||
| 10/10/2026 | Nevada | 30 | ✓ | #195 | @ UTEP | 1-6 | 13 | W | UTEP (+9.41) | 100% | 7.59 | |||||
| 10/17/2026 | Nevada | 17 | #57 | @ North Dakota State | 6-1 | 31 | L | North Dakota State (-13.96) | 0% | -0.04 | ||||||
| 10/24/2026 | #110 | San José State | 4-3 | @ Nevada | W | Nevada (-4.07) | 60% | |||||||||
| 10/31/2026 | Nevada | #1 | @ UCLA | 6-0 | L | UCLA (-26.67) | 6% | |||||||||
| 11/7/2026 | #58 | New Mexico | 5-1 | @ Nevada | L | Nevada (+13.34) | 21% | |||||||||
| 11/14/2026 | Nevada | #175 | @ Northern Illinois | 0-6 | W | Northern Illinois (+7.13) | 67% | |||||||||
| 11/21/2026 | #174 | Hawai'i | 1-6 | @ Nevada | W | Nevada (-7.40) | 68% | |||||||||
| 11/29/2026 | Nevada | #82 | @ UNLV | 4-3 | L | UNLV (-5.77) | 36% | |||||||||
PROJECTED RECORD 15-734.2% 24-831.7% 36-616.0% 43-913.1% 57-52.9% 62-102.0% Chance of winning all 6 remaining games: 0.1% | ||||||||||||||||