| Date | QB1 Out? |
Rank | Away Team | Record | Score | QB1 Out? |
Rank | Home Team | Record | Score | Neutral Site | Playoff Game | Outcome | Expected Outcome | Expected Probability |
Actual Deviation |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8/29/2026 | Hawai'i | 27 | #103 | @ Stanford | 3-4 | 37 | L | Stanford (-4.42) | 0% | -5.58 | ||||||
| 9/6/2026 | #82 | UNLV | 4-3 | 21 | @ Hawai'i | 6 | L | Hawai'i (-0.78) | 0% | -15.78 | ||||||
| 9/13/2026 | #162 | New Mexico State | 2-4 | 19 | @ Hawai'i | 29 | W | Hawai'i (-6.28) | 100% | 3.72 | ||||||
| 9/26/2026 | Hawai'i | 10 | #120 | @ Wyoming | 4-3 | 27 | L | Wyoming (+1.83) | 0% | -18.83 | ||||||
| 10/4/2026 | #110 | San José State | 4-3 | 20 | @ Hawai'i | 16 | L | Hawai'i (-2.73) | 0% | -6.73 | ||||||
| 10/10/2026 | Hawai'i | 12 | #89 | @ Arizona State | 3-3 | 30 | L | Arizona State (-15.79) | 0% | -2.21 | ||||||
| 10/17/2026 | #58 | New Mexico | 5-1 | 21 | @ Hawai'i | 10 | L | Hawai'i (+21.14) | 0% | 10.14 | ||||||
| 10/24/2026 | Hawai'i | #175 | @ Northern Illinois | 0-6 | W | Northern Illinois (+1.60) | 54% | |||||||||
| 11/7/2026 | Hawai'i | #195 | @ UTEP | 1-6 | W | UTEP (+5.03) | 62% | |||||||||
| 11/15/2026 | #57 | North Dakota State | 6-1 | @ Hawai'i | L | Hawai'i (+10.64) | 26% | |||||||||
| 11/21/2026 | Hawai'i | #131 | @ Nevada | 2-4 | L | Nevada (-7.40) | 32% | |||||||||
| 11/29/2026 | #224 | Sacramento State | 1-6 | @ Hawai'i | W | Hawai'i (-14.70) | 81% | |||||||||
PROJECTED RECORD 14-834.8% 23-933.1% 35-715.1% 42-1013.0% 56-62.3% 61-111.6% Chance of winning all 5 remaining games: 2.3% | ||||||||||||||||