| Date | QB1 Out? |
Rank | Away Team | Record | Score | QB1 Out? |
Rank | Home Team | Record | Score | Neutral Site | Playoff Game | Outcome | Expected Outcome | Expected Probability |
Actual Deviation |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9/5/2026 | Toledo | 20 | #79 | @ Michigan State | 2-5 | 30 | L | Michigan State (-0.54) | 0% | -9.46 | ||||||
| 9/12/2026 | #187 | Central Connecticut | 2-3 | 10 | @ Toledo | 63 | W | Toledo (-36.76) | 100% | 16.24 | ||||||
| 9/19/2026 | #140 | Temple | 2-5 | 48 | @ Toledo | 49 | W | Toledo (-12.83) | 100% | -11.83 | ||||||
| 9/26/2026 | #81 | San Diego State | 3-4 | 16 | @ Toledo | 41 | W | Toledo (-11.04) | 100% | 13.96 | ||||||
| 10/3/2026 | Toledo | 39 | #138 | @ Ball State | 2-5 | 24 | W | Ball State (+24.17) | 100% | -9.17 | ||||||
| 10/10/2026 | #109 | Buffalo | 4-3 | 23 | @ Toledo | 8 | L | Toledo (-27.18) | 0% | -42.18 | ||||||
| 10/17/2026 | Toledo | 34 | #134 | @ Eastern Michigan | 4-4 | 14 | W | Eastern Michigan (+10.15) | 100% | 9.85 | ||||||
| 10/24/2026 | #50 | Western Michigan | 5-2 | @ Toledo | W | Toledo (-4.94) | 62% | |||||||||
| 11/4/2026 | Toledo | #224 | @ Sacramento State | 1-6 | W | Sacramento State (+19.87) | 88% | |||||||||
| 11/11/2026 | #143 | Massachusetts | 4-3 | @ Toledo | W | Toledo (-14.38) | 81% | |||||||||
| 11/21/2026 | #147 | Bowling Green | 2-5 | @ Toledo | W | Toledo (-17.72) | 85% | |||||||||
| 11/27/2026 | Toledo | #73 | @ Ohio | 5-2 | L | Ohio (-1.06) | 47% | |||||||||
PROJECTED RECORD 19-340.5% 28-430.6% 310-217.9% 47-59.7% 56-61.3% 65-70.1% Chance of winning all 5 remaining games: 17.9% | ||||||||||||||||