| Date | QB1 Out? |
Rank | Away Team | Record | Score | QB1 Out? |
Rank | Home Team | Record | Score | Neutral Site | Playoff Game | Outcome | Expected Outcome | Expected Probability |
Actual Deviation |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8/29/2026 | Sacramento State | 17 | #134 | @ Eastern Michigan | 4-4 | 28 | L | Eastern Michigan (-1.11) | 0% | -9.89 | ||||||
| 9/6/2026 | #259 | Mississippi Valley State | 2-4 | 0 | @ Sacramento State | 52 | W | Sacramento State (-41.08) | 100% | 10.92 | ||||||
| 9/13/2026 | Sacramento State | 3 | #76 | @ Fresno State | 4-3 | 49 | L | Fresno State (-7.04) | 0% | -38.96 | ||||||
| 9/20/2026 | #57 | North Dakota State | 6-1 | 31 | @ Sacramento State | 10 | L | Sacramento State (+17.88) | 0% | -3.12 | ||||||
| 9/26/2026 | #143 | Massachusetts | 4-3 | 35 | @ Sacramento State | 6 | L | Sacramento State (-2.45) | 0% | -31.45 | ||||||
| 10/10/2026 | Sacramento State | 10 | #147 | @ Bowling Green | 2-5 | 38 | L | Bowling Green (-2.99) | 0% | -25.01 | ||||||
| 10/17/2026 | #73 | Ohio | 5-2 | 48 | @ Sacramento State | 7 | L | Sacramento State (+12.60) | 0% | -28.40 | ||||||
| 10/24/2026 | Sacramento State | #138 | @ Ball State | 2-5 | L | Ball State (-9.84) | 27% | |||||||||
| 10/31/2026 | #136 | Kent State | 2-5 | @ Sacramento State | L | Sacramento State (+3.26) | 42% | |||||||||
| 11/4/2026 | #74 | Toledo | 5-2 | @ Sacramento State | L | Sacramento State (+19.87) | 12% | |||||||||
| 11/11/2026 | Sacramento State | #104 | @ Central Michigan | 3-4 | L | Central Michigan (-16.44) | 16% | |||||||||
| 11/29/2026 | Sacramento State | #174 | @ Hawai'i | 1-6 | L | Hawai'i (-14.70) | 19% | |||||||||
PROJECTED RECORD 12-1041.9% 21-1125.3% 33-925.0% 44-86.8% 55-70.9% 66-6<0.1% Chance of winning all 5 remaining games: <0.1% | ||||||||||||||||