| Date | QB1 Out? |
Rank | Away Team | Record | Score | QB1 Out? |
Rank | Home Team | Record | Score | Neutral Site | Playoff Game | Outcome | Expected Outcome | Expected Probability |
Actual Deviation |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9/3/2026 | #150 | UAlbany | 4-3 | 17 | @ Buffalo | 21 | W | Buffalo (-18.01) | 100% | -14.01 | ||||||
| 9/12/2026 | Buffalo | 20 | #108 | @ Florida International | 3-3 | 33 | L | Florida International (-9.11) | 0% | -3.89 | ||||||
| 9/19/2026 | Buffalo | 13 | #61 | @ Penn State | 3-4 | 55 | L | Penn State (-36.69) | 0% | -5.31 | ||||||
| 9/26/2026 | #238 | Robert Morris | 2-4 | 28 | @ Buffalo | 31 | W | Buffalo (-21.80) | 100% | -18.80 | ||||||
| 10/3/2026 | #50 | Western Michigan | 5-2 | 20 | @ Buffalo | 17 | L | Buffalo (+13.58) | 0% | 10.58 | ||||||
| 10/10/2026 | Buffalo | 23 | #74 | @ Toledo | 5-2 | 8 | W | Toledo (-27.18) | 100% | 42.18 | ||||||
| 10/17/2026 | ✓ | #143 | Massachusetts | 4-3 | 18 | @ Buffalo | 25 | W | Buffalo (-2.89) | 100% | 4.11 | |||||
| 10/24/2026 | #147 | Bowling Green | 2-5 | @ Buffalo | W | Buffalo (-5.24) | 63% | |||||||||
| 11/4/2026 | Buffalo | #115 | @ Miami (OH) | 4-3 | L | Miami (OH) (-5.84) | 36% | |||||||||
| 11/11/2026 | Buffalo | #138 | @ Ball State | 2-5 | W | Ball State (+1.82) | 55% | |||||||||
| 11/18/2026 | #104 | Central Michigan | 3-4 | @ Buffalo | W | Buffalo (-1.46) | 54% | |||||||||
| 11/27/2026 | Buffalo | #182 | @ Akron | 1-6 | W | Akron (+3.22) | 58% | |||||||||
PROJECTED RECORD 17-533.5% 26-629.5% 38-418.3% 45-712.6% 59-33.8% 64-82.1% Chance of winning all 5 remaining games: 3.8% | ||||||||||||||||