| Date | QB1 Out? |
Rank | Away Team | Record | Score | QB1 Out? |
Rank | Home Team | Record | Score | Neutral Site | Playoff Game | Outcome | Expected Outcome | Expected Probability |
Actual Deviation |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9/5/2026 | Ball State | 3 | #4 | @ Ohio State | 6-1 | 56 | L | Ohio State (-46.65) | 0% | -6.35 | ||||||
| 9/12/2026 | #185 | Stony Brook | 4-3 | 17 | @ Ball State | 41 | W | Ball State (-5.90) | 100% | 18.10 | ||||||
| 9/19/2026 | Ball State | 15 | #63 | @ Liberty | 5-1 | 51 | L | Liberty (-10.89) | 0% | -25.11 | ||||||
| 9/26/2026 | ✓ | Ball State | 13 | #136 | @ Kent State | 2-5 | 26 | L | Kent State (-3.54) | 0% | -9.46 | |||||
| 10/3/2026 | #74 | Toledo | 5-2 | 39 | @ Ball State | 24 | L | Ball State (+24.17) | 0% | 9.17 | ||||||
| 10/10/2026 | Ball State | 14 | #22 | @ Northwestern | 5-1 | 45 | L | Northwestern (-35.72) | 0% | 4.72 | ||||||
| 10/17/2026 | Ball State | 32 | #147 | @ Bowling Green | 2-5 | 31 | W | Bowling Green (-4.24) | 100% | 5.24 | ||||||
| 10/24/2026 | #224 | Sacramento State | 1-6 | @ Ball State | W | Ball State (-9.84) | 73% | |||||||||
| 11/4/2026 | Ball State | #143 | @ Massachusetts | 4-3 | L | Massachusetts (-5.25) | 37% | |||||||||
| 11/11/2026 | #109 | Buffalo | 4-3 | @ Ball State | L | Ball State (+1.82) | 45% | |||||||||
| 11/18/2026 | Ball State | #73 | @ Ohio | 5-2 | L | Ohio (-17.02) | 15% | |||||||||
| 11/28/2026 | #104 | Central Michigan | 3-4 | @ Ball State | L | Ball State (+3.37) | 42% | |||||||||
PROJECTED RECORD 14-837.3% 25-726.3% 33-923.0% 46-68.0% 52-104.6% 67-50.8% Chance of winning all 5 remaining games: 0.8% | ||||||||||||||||