| Date | QB1 Out? |
Rank | Away Team | Record | Score | QB1 Out? |
Rank | Home Team | Record | Score | Neutral Site | Playoff Game | Outcome | Expected Outcome | Expected Probability |
Actual Deviation |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8/29/2026 | New Mexico State | 17 | #70 | @ Florida State | 3-4 | 34 | L | Florida State (-29.23) | 0% | 12.23 | ||||||
| 9/6/2026 | #249 | Mercyhurst | 0-6 | 14 | @ New Mexico State | 51 | W | New Mexico State (-22.28) | 100% | 14.72 | ||||||
| 9/13/2026 | New Mexico State | 19 | #174 | @ Hawai'i | 1-6 | 29 | L | Hawai'i (-6.28) | 0% | -3.72 | ||||||
| 9/26/2026 | #58 | New Mexico | 5-1 | 42 | @ New Mexico State | 18 | L | New Mexico State (+11.62) | 0% | -12.38 | ||||||
| 10/2/2026 | #137 | Western Kentucky | 3-4 | 13 | ✓ | @ New Mexico State | 34 | W | New Mexico State (-0.42) | 100% | 20.58 | |||||
| 10/7/2026 | New Mexico State | 3 | #108 | @ Florida International | 3-3 | 22 | L | Florida International (-3.31) | 0% | -15.69 | ||||||
| 10/22/2026 | New Mexico State | #161 | @ Sam Houston | 1-5 | L | Sam Houston (-1.14) | 47% | |||||||||
| 10/29/2026 | #88 | Jacksonville State | 5-2 | @ New Mexico State | L | New Mexico State (+1.07) | 47% | |||||||||
| 11/7/2026 | #63 | Liberty | 5-1 | @ New Mexico State | L | New Mexico State (+9.02) | 29% | |||||||||
| 11/14/2026 | New Mexico State | #163 | @ Missouri State | 2-4 | W | Missouri State (+2.62) | 57% | |||||||||
| 11/21/2026 | #166 | Delaware | 2-4 | @ New Mexico State | W | New Mexico State (-6.29) | 65% | |||||||||
| 11/28/2026 | New Mexico State | #159 | @ Middle Tennessee | 3-3 | W | Middle Tennessee (+4.20) | 60% | |||||||||
PROJECTED RECORD 15-732.3% 26-624.7% 34-822.7% 47-59.5% 53-98.2% 68-41.4% Chance of winning all 6 remaining games: 1.4% | ||||||||||||||||