| Date | QB1 Out? |
Rank | Away Team | Record | Score | QB1 Out? |
Rank | Home Team | Record | Score | Neutral Site | Playoff Game | Outcome | Expected Outcome | Expected Probability |
Actual Deviation |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9/5/2026 | Missouri State | 0 | #41 | @ Texas A&M | 4-3 | 50 | L | Texas A&M (-27.60) | 0% | -22.40 | ||||||
| 9/12/2026 | #219 | Lindenwood | 2-4 | 14 | @ Missouri State | 48 | W | Missouri State (-12.12) | 100% | 21.88 | ||||||
| 9/19/2026 | #146 | Marshall | 3-3 | 30 | @ Missouri State | 24 | L | Missouri State (-3.81) | 0% | -9.81 | ||||||
| 9/26/2026 | Missouri State | 24 | #44 | @ SMU | 5-1 | 34 | L | SMU (-27.93) | 0% | 17.93 | ||||||
| 10/8/2026 | Missouri State | 13 | ✓ | #137 | @ Western Kentucky | 3-4 | 34 | L | Western Kentucky (-2.42) | 0% | -18.58 | |||||
| 10/14/2026 | #172 | Kennesaw State | 1-5 | 21 | ✓ | @ Missouri State | 24 | W | Missouri State (+8.97) | 100% | 11.97 | |||||
| 10/20/2026 | Missouri State | #166 | @ Delaware | 2-4 | L | Delaware (-4.24) | 40% | |||||||||
| 10/28/2026 | #161 | Sam Houston | 1-5 | @ Missouri State | L | Missouri State (+1.02) | 47% | |||||||||
| 11/7/2026 | Missouri State | #108 | @ Florida International | 3-3 | L | Florida International (-9.25) | 28% | |||||||||
| 11/14/2026 | #162 | New Mexico State | 2-4 | @ Missouri State | L | Missouri State (+2.62) | 43% | |||||||||
| 11/21/2026 | Missouri State | #88 | @ Jacksonville State | 5-2 | L | Jacksonville State (-12.71) | 22% | |||||||||
| 11/28/2026 | #63 | Liberty | 5-1 | @ Missouri State | L | Missouri State (+15.47) | 18% | |||||||||
PROJECTED RECORD 14-834.1% 23-926.6% 35-722.1% 42-108.3% 56-67.6% 67-51.3% Chance of winning all 6 remaining games: 0.1% | ||||||||||||||||