| Date | QB1 Out? |
Rank | Away Team | Record | Score | QB1 Out? |
Rank | Home Team | Record | Score | Neutral Site | Playoff Game | Outcome | Expected Outcome | Expected Probability |
Actual Deviation |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9/5/2026 | #246 | Murray State | 1-6 | 14 | @ Middle Tennessee | 38 | W | Middle Tennessee (-19.70) | 100% | 4.30 | ||||||
| 9/12/2026 | Middle Tennessee | 26 | #146 | @ Marshall | 3-3 | 28 | L | Marshall (-6.31) | 0% | 4.31 | ||||||
| 9/19/2026 | #131 | Nevada | 2-4 | 20 | @ Middle Tennessee | 27 | W | Middle Tennessee (+2.72) | 100% | 9.72 | ||||||
| 9/26/2026 | Middle Tennessee | 13 | #88 | @ Jacksonville State | 5-2 | 23 | L | Jacksonville State (-10.49) | 0% | 0.49 | ||||||
| 10/3/2026 | Middle Tennessee | 0 | #93 | @ Kansas | 2-4 | 55 | L | Kansas (-18.51) | 0% | -36.49 | ||||||
| 10/13/2026 | ✓ | #166 | Delaware | 2-4 | 30 | @ Middle Tennessee | 33 | W | Middle Tennessee (+2.10) | 100% | 5.10 | |||||
| 10/20/2026 | Middle Tennessee | #108 | @ Florida International | 3-3 | L | Florida International (-11.74) | 24% | |||||||||
| 10/28/2026 | #172 | Kennesaw State | 1-5 | @ Middle Tennessee | L | Middle Tennessee (+6.27) | 35% | |||||||||
| 11/7/2026 | #137 | Western Kentucky | 3-4 | @ Middle Tennessee | L | Middle Tennessee (+3.83) | 41% | |||||||||
| 11/14/2026 | Middle Tennessee | #63 | @ Liberty | 5-1 | L | Liberty (-21.95) | 10% | |||||||||
| 11/21/2026 | Middle Tennessee | #161 | @ Sam Houston | 1-5 | L | Sam Houston (-8.30) | 30% | |||||||||
| 11/28/2026 | #162 | New Mexico State | 2-4 | @ Middle Tennessee | L | Middle Tennessee (+4.20) | 40% | |||||||||
PROJECTED RECORD 15-733.4% 24-830.6% 36-618.6% 43-911.2% 57-55.4% 68-40.8% Chance of winning all 6 remaining games: <0.1% | ||||||||||||||||