| Date | QB1 Out? |
Rank | Away Team | Record | Score | QB1 Out? |
Rank | Home Team | Record | Score | Neutral Site | Playoff Game | Outcome | Expected Outcome | Expected Probability |
Actual Deviation |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9/6/2026 | Louisville | 38 | #11 | Ole Miss | 5-1 | 41 | ✓ | L | Ole Miss (-6.39) | 0% | 3.39 | |||||
| 9/11/2026 | #206 | Villanova | 3-4 | 13 | @ Louisville | 59 | W | Louisville (-29.63) | 100% | 16.37 | ||||||
| 9/19/2026 | #44 | SMU | 5-1 | 31 | @ Louisville | 41 | W | Louisville (-3.33) | 100% | 6.67 | ||||||
| 9/26/2026 | #19 | Wake Forest | 6-1 | 30 | @ Louisville | 27 | L | Louisville (-13.57) | 0% | -16.57 | ||||||
| 10/3/2026 | Louisville | 28 | #77 | @ NC State | 3-3 | 31 | L | NC State (-0.92) | 0% | -2.08 | ||||||
| 10/9/2026 | #70 | Florida State | 3-4 | 20 | @ Louisville | 44 | W | Louisville (-2.40) | 100% | 21.60 | ||||||
| 10/17/2026 | Louisville | 34 | #118 | @ Syracuse | 2-4 | 26 | W | Syracuse (+8.66) | 100% | -0.66 | ||||||
| 10/31/2026 | #103 | Stanford | 3-4 | @ Louisville | W | Louisville (-27.58) | 94% | |||||||||
| 11/7/2026 | Louisville | #96 | @ Georgia Tech | 2-4 | W | Georgia Tech (+9.58) | 72% | |||||||||
| 11/14/2026 | Louisville | #29 | @ North Carolina | 4-2 | W | North Carolina (+0.49) | 51% | |||||||||
| 11/21/2026 | #59 | Pittsburgh | 5-2 | @ Louisville | W | Louisville (-7.06) | 67% | |||||||||
| 11/28/2026 | Louisville | #6 | @ Kentucky | 6-1 | L | Kentucky (-5.72) | 36% | |||||||||
PROJECTED RECORD 17-537.8% 28-430.8% 36-619.1% 49-38.4% 55-73.7% 64-80.2% Chance of winning all 5 remaining games: 8.4% | ||||||||||||||||