| Date | QB1 Out? |
Rank | Away Team | Record | Score | QB1 Out? |
Rank | Home Team | Record | Score | Neutral Site | Playoff Game | Outcome | Expected Outcome | Expected Probability |
Actual Deviation |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9/5/2026 | #155 | Southeast Missouri State | 4-3 | 10 | @ Iowa State | 38 | W | Iowa State (-38.63) | 100% | -10.63 | ||||||
| 9/12/2026 | Iowa State | 13 | #21 | @ Iowa | 5-1 | 16 | L | Iowa (-13.39) | 0% | 10.39 | ||||||
| 9/19/2026 | #147 | Bowling Green | 2-5 | 7 | @ Iowa State | 55 | W | Iowa State (-28.17) | 100% | 19.83 | ||||||
| 9/26/2026 | #15 | Utah | 6-0 | 31 | @ Iowa State | 17 | L | Iowa State (+5.99) | 0% | -8.01 | ||||||
| 10/3/2026 | #68 | West Virginia | 4-3 | 42 | @ Iowa State | 45 | W | Iowa State (-13.21) | 100% | -10.21 | ||||||
| 10/10/2026 | Iowa State | 10 | #7 | @ BYU | 6-0 | 24 | L | BYU (-8.29) | 0% | -5.71 | ||||||
| 10/24/2026 | Iowa State | #25 | @ Arizona | 5-1 | L | Arizona (-7.01) | 33% | |||||||||
| 10/31/2026 | #32 | Oklahoma State | 4-2 | @ Iowa State | L | Iowa State (+0.02) | 50% | |||||||||
| 11/7/2026 | Iowa State | #36 | @ Baylor | 4-2 | L | Baylor (-5.12) | 37% | |||||||||
| 11/14/2026 | #49 | Cincinnati | 4-2 | @ Iowa State | W | Iowa State (-7.47) | 68% | |||||||||
| 11/20/2026 | Iowa State | #53 | @ UCF | 3-3 | L | UCF (-2.60) | 44% | |||||||||
| 11/28/2026 | #47 | Kansas State | 4-2 | @ Iowa State | W | Iowa State (-3.46) | 59% | |||||||||
PROJECTED RECORD 16-632.3% 25-725.3% 37-522.0% 44-810.1% 58-47.7% 63-91.6% Chance of winning all 6 remaining games: 1.1% | ||||||||||||||||