| Date | QB1 Out? |
Rank | Away Team | Record | Score | QB1 Out? |
Rank | Home Team | Record | Score | Neutral Site | Playoff Game | Outcome | Expected Outcome | Expected Probability |
Actual Deviation |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8/29/2026 | #162 | New Mexico State | 2-4 | 17 | @ Florida State | 34 | W | Florida State (-29.23) | 100% | -12.23 | ||||||
| 9/7/2026 | #44 | SMU | 5-1 | 27 | @ Florida State | 24 | L | Florida State (-5.10) | 0% | -8.10 | ||||||
| 9/19/2026 | Florida State | 36 | #8 | @ Alabama | 5-2 | 50 | L | Alabama (-16.65) | 0% | 2.65 | ||||||
| 9/26/2026 | #205 | Central Arkansas | 1-5 | 7 | @ Florida State | 34 | W | Florida State (-41.35) | 100% | -14.35 | ||||||
| 10/3/2026 | #86 | Virginia | 4-3 | 7 | @ Florida State | 38 | W | Florida State (+3.87) | 100% | 34.87 | ||||||
| 10/9/2026 | Florida State | 20 | #40 | @ Louisville | 4-3 | 44 | L | Louisville (-2.40) | 0% | -21.60 | ||||||
| 10/17/2026 | Florida State | 35 | #3 | @ Miami | 6-0 | 43 | L | Miami (-22.77) | 0% | 14.77 | ||||||
| 10/31/2026 | #35 | Clemson | 4-2 | @ Florida State | W | Florida State (-7.61) | 68% | |||||||||
| 11/7/2026 | Florida State | #101 | @ Boston College | 3-3 | W | Boston College (+9.48) | 72% | |||||||||
| 11/14/2026 | Florida State | #59 | @ Pittsburgh | 5-2 | L | Pittsburgh (-5.12) | 37% | |||||||||
| 11/21/2026 | #77 | NC State | 3-3 | @ Florida State | W | Florida State (-8.28) | 70% | |||||||||
| 11/27/2026 | #18 | Florida | 5-2 | @ Florida State | L | Florida State (+3.40) | 42% | |||||||||
PROJECTED RECORD 16-636.6% 25-725.6% 37-523.3% 44-88.2% 58-45.3% 63-91.0% Chance of winning all 5 remaining games: 5.3% | ||||||||||||||||