| Date | QB1 Out? |
Rank | Away Team | Record | Score | QB1 Out? |
Rank | Home Team | Record | Score | Neutral Site | Playoff Game | Outcome | Expected Outcome | Expected Probability |
Actual Deviation |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9/5/2026 | #146 | Marshall | 3-3 | 0 | @ Penn State | 45 | W | Penn State (-23.54) | 100% | 21.46 | ||||||
| 9/12/2026 | Penn State | 27 | #140 | @ Temple | 2-5 | 9 | W | Temple (+13.39) | 100% | 4.61 | ||||||
| 9/19/2026 | #109 | Buffalo | 4-3 | 13 | @ Penn State | 55 | W | Penn State (-36.69) | 100% | 5.31 | ||||||
| 9/26/2026 | #33 | Wisconsin | 4-2 | 24 | @ Penn State | 20 | L | Penn State (-16.82) | 0% | -20.82 | ||||||
| 10/3/2026 | Penn State | 13 | #22 | @ Northwestern | 5-1 | 34 | L | Northwestern (+2.92) | 0% | -23.92 | ||||||
| 10/10/2026 | #23 | USC | 6-1 | 31 | @ Penn State | 23 | L | Penn State (-3.41) | 0% | -11.41 | ||||||
| 10/17/2026 | Penn State | 18 | #38 | @ Michigan | 4-2 | 21 | L | Michigan (-3.65) | 0% | 0.65 | ||||||
| 10/31/2026 | #56 | Purdue | 3-4 | @ Penn State | W | Penn State (-6.22) | 65% | |||||||||
| 11/7/2026 | Penn State | #62 | @ Washington | 4-3 | W | Washington (+0.26) | 51% | |||||||||
| 11/14/2026 | #60 | Minnesota | 4-2 | @ Penn State | W | Penn State (-9.58) | 72% | |||||||||
| 11/21/2026 | #111 | Rutgers | 2-4 | @ Penn State | W | Penn State (-15.48) | 82% | |||||||||
| 11/28/2026 | Penn State | #119 | @ Maryland | 2-5 | W | Maryland (+11.39) | 76% | |||||||||
PROJECTED RECORD 17-536.1% 26-632.4% 38-414.9% 45-713.6% 54-82.7% 63-90.2% Chance of winning all 5 remaining games: 14.9% | ||||||||||||||||