| Date | QB1 Out? |
Rank | Away Team | Record | Score | QB1 Out? |
Rank | Home Team | Record | Score | Neutral Site | Playoff Game | Outcome | Expected Outcome | Expected Probability |
Actual Deviation |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9/5/2026 | #74 | Toledo | 5-2 | 20 | @ Michigan State | 30 | W | Michigan State (-0.54) | 100% | 9.46 | ||||||
| 9/12/2026 | #134 | Eastern Michigan | 4-4 | 7 | @ Michigan State | 35 | W | Michigan State (-17.01) | 100% | 10.99 | ||||||
| 9/19/2026 | Michigan State | 10 | #2 | @ Notre Dame | 6-1 | 27 | L | Notre Dame (-24.36) | 0% | 7.36 | ||||||
| 9/26/2026 | #24 | Nebraska | 5-2 | 31 | @ Michigan State | 13 | L | Michigan State (+4.34) | 0% | -13.66 | ||||||
| 10/3/2026 | Michigan State | 3 | #33 | @ Wisconsin | 4-2 | 31 | L | Wisconsin (-5.84) | 0% | -22.16 | ||||||
| 10/10/2026 | #64 | Illinois | 3-3 | 38 | @ Michigan State | 37 | L | Michigan State (+1.79) | 0% | 0.79 | ||||||
| 10/17/2026 | #22 | Northwestern | 5-1 | 24 | @ Michigan State | 21 | L | Michigan State (+8.82) | 0% | 5.82 | ||||||
| 10/24/2026 | Michigan State | #1 | @ UCLA | 6-0 | L | UCLA (-14.21) | 19% | |||||||||
| 11/7/2026 | Michigan State | #38 | @ Michigan | 4-2 | L | Michigan (-5.94) | 36% | |||||||||
| 11/14/2026 | #62 | Washington | 4-3 | @ Michigan State | W | Michigan State (-2.94) | 57% | |||||||||
| 11/21/2026 | #12 | Oregon | 4-2 | @ Michigan State | L | Michigan State (+12.69) | 22% | |||||||||
| 11/28/2026 | Michigan State | #111 | @ Rutgers | 2-4 | W | Rutgers (+8.22) | 69% | |||||||||
PROJECTED RECORD 14-838.5% 23-924.8% 35-724.3% 46-66.5% 52-105.3% 67-50.6% Chance of winning all 5 remaining games: 0.6% | ||||||||||||||||