| Date | QB1 Out? |
Rank | Away Team | Record | Score | QB1 Out? |
Rank | Home Team | Record | Score | Neutral Site | Playoff Game | Outcome | Expected Outcome | Expected Probability |
Actual Deviation |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9/5/2026 | #193 | UT Rio Grande Valley | 2-4 | 16 | @ UTSA | 45 | W | UTSA (-23.61) | 100% | 5.39 | ||||||
| 9/12/2026 | UTSA | 31 | #46 | @ Texas State | 3-3 | 26 | W | Texas State (+8.25) | 100% | -3.25 | ||||||
| 9/20/2026 | UTSA | 6 | #9 | @ Texas | 4-2 | 30 | L | Texas (-20.18) | 0% | -3.82 | ||||||
| 9/26/2026 | ✓ | #99 | Colorado State | 2-4 | 45 | @ UTSA | 59 | W | UTSA (-12.88) | 100% | 1.12 | |||||
| 10/3/2026 | UTSA | 16 | #142 | @ Rice | 1-6 | 14 | W | Rice (+14.65) | 100% | -12.65 | ||||||
| 10/8/2026 | #71 | South Florida | 5-2 | 24 | @ UTSA | 31 | W | UTSA (-1.16) | 100% | 5.84 | ||||||
| 10/17/2026 | #125 | Navy | 2-4 | 34 | @ UTSA | 38 | W | UTSA (-9.00) | 100% | -5.00 | ||||||
| 10/24/2026 | UTSA | #78 | @ Tulane | 3-3 | L | Tulane (-0.65) | 48% | |||||||||
| 11/6/2026 | UTSA | #97 | @ Florida Atlantic | 4-2 | W | Florida Atlantic (+4.80) | 62% | |||||||||
| 11/14/2026 | #42 | North Texas | 4-2 | @ UTSA | L | UTSA (+2.27) | 44% | |||||||||
| 11/21/2026 | UTSA | #106 | @ UAB | 4-3 | W | UAB (+5.82) | 64% | |||||||||
| 11/28/2026 | #87 | Tulsa | 4-3 | @ UTSA | W | UTSA (-5.72) | 64% | |||||||||
PROJECTED RECORD 19-334.8% 28-426.5% 310-222.1% 47-59.8% 511-15.4% 66-61.4% Chance of winning all 5 remaining games: 5.4% | ||||||||||||||||