| Date | QB1 Out? |
Rank | Away Team | Record | Score | QB1 Out? |
Rank | Home Team | Record | Score | Neutral Site | Playoff Game | Outcome | Expected Outcome | Expected Probability |
Actual Deviation |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8/30/2026 | #221 | Prairie View A&M | 3-5 | 30 | @ Tarleton State | 49 | W | Tarleton State (-23.26) | 100% | -4.26 | ||||||
| 9/5/2026 | Tarleton State | 20 | #147 | @ Bowling Green | 2-5 | 13 | W | Bowling Green (+9.05) | 100% | -2.05 | ||||||
| 9/12/2026 | Tarleton State | 27 | #179 | @ McNeese | 2-4 | 24 | W | McNeese (+13.50) | 100% | -10.50 | ||||||
| 9/19/2026 | #244 | Merrimack | 2-5 | 20 | @ Tarleton State | 45 | W | Tarleton State (-30.40) | 100% | -5.40 | ||||||
| 10/3/2026 | #262 | Chicago State | 0-5 | 21 | @ Tarleton State | 56 | W | Tarleton State (-29.07) | 100% | 5.93 | ||||||
| 10/10/2026 | Tarleton State | 40 | #135 | @ Austin Peay | 6-2 | 32 | W | Austin Peay (-2.95) | 100% | 10.95 | ||||||
| 10/17/2026 | #205 | Central Arkansas | 1-5 | 35 | @ Tarleton State | 49 | W | Tarleton State (-17.12) | 100% | -3.12 | ||||||
| 10/24/2026 | Tarleton State | #252 | @ West Georgia | 0-6 | W | West Georgia (+14.05) | 80% | |||||||||
| 10/31/2026 | #222 | Eastern Kentucky | 2-5 | @ Tarleton State | W | Tarleton State (-17.20) | 85% | |||||||||
| 11/8/2026 | #121 | Abilene Christian | 4-4 | @ Tarleton State | W | Tarleton State (-4.44) | 61% | |||||||||
| 11/14/2026 | Tarleton State | #151 | @ West Florida | 3-2 | W | West Florida (+2.56) | 56% | |||||||||
| 11/21/2026 | Tarleton State | #168 | @ North Alabama | 4-3 | W | North Alabama (+3.40) | 58% | |||||||||
PROJECTED RECORD 111-134.9% 210-233.5% 39-314.8% 412-013.7% 58-43.0% 67-50.2% Chance of winning all 5 remaining games: 13.7% | ||||||||||||||||