| Date | QB1 Out? |
Rank | Away Team | Record | Score | QB1 Out? |
Rank | Home Team | Record | Score | Neutral Site | Playoff Game | Outcome | Expected Outcome | Expected Probability |
Actual Deviation |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8/29/2026 | #239 | Southern | 1-4 | 17 | Alabama State | 30 | ✓ | W | Alabama State (-21.99) | 100% | -8.99 | |||||
| 9/12/2026 | Alabama State | 17 | #126 | @ Troy | 3-3 | 34 | L | Troy (-11.25) | 0% | -5.75 | ||||||
| 9/26/2026 | #259 | Mississippi Valley State | 2-4 | 15 | @ Alabama State | 41 | W | Alabama State (-33.20) | 100% | -7.20 | ||||||
| 10/3/2026 | Alabama State | 10 | #226 | @ Bethune-Cookman | 3-3 | 16 | L | Bethune-Cookman (+10.53) | 0% | -16.53 | ||||||
| 10/10/2026 | #227 | Florida A&M | 1-5 | 28 | @ Alabama State | 27 | L | Alabama State (-16.33) | 0% | -17.33 | ||||||
| 10/17/2026 | Alabama State | 21 | #223 | @ Arkansas-Pine Bluff | 1-3 | 15 | W | Arkansas-Pine Bluff (-3.61) | 100% | 9.61 | ||||||
| 10/31/2026 | Alabama State | #144 | Alabama A&M | 4-2 | ✓ | L | Alabama A&M (-7.77) | 31% | ||||||||
| 11/7/2026 | Alabama State | #261 | @ Texas Southern | 1-5 | W | Texas Southern (+14.39) | 81% | |||||||||
| 11/14/2026 | #154 | Jackson State | 4-1 | @ Alabama State | L | Alabama State (+1.33) | 47% | |||||||||
| 11/21/2026 | #221 | Prairie View A&M | 3-5 | @ Alabama State | W | Alabama State (-5.19) | 63% | |||||||||
PROJECTED RECORD 15-540.1% 26-430.9% 34-618.9% 47-37.4% 53-72.6% Chance of winning all 4 remaining games: 7.4% | ||||||||||||||||