| Date | QB1 Out? |
Rank | Away Team | Record | Score | QB1 Out? |
Rank | Home Team | Record | Score | Neutral Site | Playoff Game | Outcome | Expected Outcome | Expected Probability |
Actual Deviation |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9/5/2026 | UT Rio Grande Valley | 16 | #39 | @ UTSA | 6-1 | 45 | L | UTSA (-23.61) | 0% | -5.39 | ||||||
| 9/12/2026 | UT Rio Grande Valley | 28 | #234 | @ Nicholls | 2-5 | 31 | L | Nicholls (+4.56) | 0% | -7.56 | ||||||
| 9/20/2026 | #179 | McNeese | 2-4 | 10 | @ UT Rio Grande Valley | 27 | W | UT Rio Grande Valley (-3.16) | 100% | 13.84 | ||||||
| 10/3/2026 | UT Rio Grande Valley | 17 | #208 | @ East Texas A&M | 2-5 | 20 | L | East Texas A&M (+8.44) | 0% | -11.44 | ||||||
| 10/11/2026 | #153 | SE Louisiana | 4-3 | 3 | @ UT Rio Grande Valley | 13 | W | UT Rio Grande Valley (-0.04) | 100% | 9.96 | ||||||
| 10/17/2026 | UT Rio Grande Valley | 16 | #145 | @ Incarnate Word | 2-4 | 41 | L | Incarnate Word (-3.56) | 0% | -21.44 | ||||||
| 10/24/2026 | UT Rio Grande Valley | #205 | @ Central Arkansas | 1-5 | L | Central Arkansas (-3.84) | 41% | |||||||||
| 11/1/2026 | #116 | Lamar | 5-2 | @ UT Rio Grande Valley | L | UT Rio Grande Valley (+5.06) | 38% | |||||||||
| 11/7/2026 | UT Rio Grande Valley | #253 | @ Northwestern State | 0-6 | W | Northwestern State (+14.48) | 81% | |||||||||
| 11/14/2026 | #69 | Stephen F. Austin | 6-0 | @ UT Rio Grande Valley | L | UT Rio Grande Valley (+13.79) | 20% | |||||||||
| 11/21/2026 | UT Rio Grande Valley | #165 | @ Houston Christian | 3-3 | L | Houston Christian (-0.23) | 49% | |||||||||
PROJECTED RECORD 14-736.9% 25-629.5% 33-819.3% 46-510.3% 52-92.9% 67-41.2% Chance of winning all 5 remaining games: 1.2% | ||||||||||||||||