| Date | QB1 Out? |
Rank | Away Team | Record | Score | QB1 Out? |
Rank | Home Team | Record | Score | Neutral Site | Playoff Game | Outcome | Expected Outcome | Expected Probability |
Actual Deviation |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9/12/2026 | Incarnate Word | 28 | #100 | @ Northern Arizona | 6-2 | 38 | L | Northern Arizona (-7.70) | 0% | -2.30 | ||||||
| 9/19/2026 | #165 | Houston Christian | 3-3 | 23 | @ Incarnate Word | 30 | W | Incarnate Word (-17.02) | 100% | -10.02 | ||||||
| 9/26/2026 | Incarnate Word | 10 | #46 | @ Texas State | 3-3 | 63 | L | Texas State (-20.20) | 0% | -32.80 | ||||||
| 10/3/2026 | Incarnate Word | 26 | #69 | @ Stephen F. Austin | 6-0 | 28 | L | Stephen F. Austin (-24.70) | 0% | 22.70 | ||||||
| 10/10/2026 | Incarnate Word | 35 | #116 | @ Lamar | 5-2 | 38 | L | Lamar (-7.18) | 0% | 4.18 | ||||||
| 10/17/2026 | #193 | UT Rio Grande Valley | 2-4 | 16 | @ Incarnate Word | 41 | W | Incarnate Word (-3.56) | 100% | 21.44 | ||||||
| 10/24/2026 | #179 | McNeese | 2-4 | @ Incarnate Word | W | Incarnate Word (-10.98) | 75% | |||||||||
| 10/31/2026 | #253 | Northwestern State | 0-6 | @ Incarnate Word | W | Incarnate Word (-27.48) | 94% | |||||||||
| 11/8/2026 | Incarnate Word | #153 | @ SE Louisiana | 4-3 | W | SE Louisiana (+0.09) | 50% | |||||||||
| 11/14/2026 | #234 | Nicholls | 2-5 | @ Incarnate Word | W | Incarnate Word (-25.47) | 93% | |||||||||
| 11/21/2026 | Incarnate Word | #208 | @ East Texas A&M | 2-5 | W | East Texas A&M (+8.76) | 71% | |||||||||
PROJECTED RECORD 16-543.6% 25-626.3% 37-423.2% 44-76.3% 53-80.6% 62-9<0.1% Chance of winning all 5 remaining games: 23.2% | ||||||||||||||||