| Date | QB1 Out? |
Rank | Away Team | Record | Score | QB1 Out? |
Rank | Home Team | Record | Score | Neutral Site | Playoff Game | Outcome | Expected Outcome | Expected Probability |
Actual Deviation |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9/12/2026 | Valparaiso | 18 | #246 | @ Murray State | 1-6 | 27 | L | Murray State (-14.68) | 0% | 5.68 | ||||||
| 9/19/2026 | Valparaiso | 16 | #188 | @ Indiana State | 2-5 | 39 | L | Indiana State (-22.04) | 0% | -0.96 | ||||||
| 9/26/2026 | #203 | Butler | 3-2 | 33 | @ Valparaiso | 28 | L | Valparaiso (+16.01) | 0% | 11.01 | ||||||
| 10/3/2026 | Valparaiso | 37 | #266 | @ Morehead State | 0-5 | 3 | W | Morehead State (+1.22) | 100% | 32.78 | ||||||
| 10/10/2026 | #251 | Drake | 2-4 | 13 | @ Valparaiso | 21 | W | Valparaiso (+4.57) | 100% | 12.57 | ||||||
| 10/17/2026 | Valparaiso | 13 | #245 | @ San Diego | 3-4 | 38 | L | San Diego (-2.00) | 0% | -23.00 | ||||||
| 10/24/2026 | #247 | Presbyterian | 3-3 | @ Valparaiso | W | Valparaiso (-3.59) | 59% | |||||||||
| 11/7/2026 | Valparaiso | #212 | @ Dayton | 3-1 | L | Dayton (-9.43) | 28% | |||||||||
| 11/14/2026 | Valparaiso | #263 | @ Stetson | 0-6 | W | Stetson (+10.52) | 74% | |||||||||
| 11/21/2026 | #202 | St. Thomas (MN) | 3-2 | @ Valparaiso | L | Valparaiso (+6.62) | 34% | |||||||||
PROJECTED RECORD 14-641.4% 23-726.3% 35-523.1% 42-85.1% 56-44.2% Chance of winning all 4 remaining games: 4.2% | ||||||||||||||||