| Date | QB1 Out? |
Rank | Away Team | Record | Score | QB1 Out? |
Rank | Home Team | Record | Score | Neutral Site | Playoff Game | Outcome | Expected Outcome | Expected Probability |
Actual Deviation |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9/6/2026 | #181 | UC Davis | 4-3 | 49 | @ San Diego | 17 | L | San Diego (+6.02) | 0% | -25.98 | ||||||
| 9/12/2026 | San Diego | 17 | #164 | @ Idaho State | 4-3 | 59 | L | Idaho State (-22.18) | 0% | -19.82 | ||||||
| 9/20/2026 | San Diego | 38 | #190 | @ Cal Poly | 3-4 | 35 | W | Cal Poly (-18.11) | 100% | 21.11 | ||||||
| 9/26/2026 | San Diego | 17 | #202 | @ St. Thomas (MN) | 3-2 | 50 | L | St. Thomas (MN) (-9.22) | 0% | -23.78 | ||||||
| 10/3/2026 | #265 | Davidson | 2-4 | 14 | @ San Diego | 63 | W | San Diego (-19.02) | 100% | 29.98 | ||||||
| 10/10/2026 | San Diego | 10 | #203 | @ Butler | 3-2 | 41 | L | Butler (-7.51) | 0% | -23.49 | ||||||
| 10/17/2026 | #257 | Valparaiso | 2-4 | 13 | @ San Diego | 38 | W | San Diego (-2.00) | 100% | 23.00 | ||||||
| 10/24/2026 | San Diego | #212 | @ Dayton | 3-1 | L | Dayton (-7.55) | 32% | |||||||||
| 10/31/2026 | #232 | Marist | 3-3 | @ San Diego | W | San Diego (-1.03) | 53% | |||||||||
| 11/7/2026 | San Diego | #251 | @ Drake | 2-4 | L | Drake (-1.96) | 45% | |||||||||
| 11/22/2026 | #263 | Stetson | 0-6 | @ San Diego | W | San Diego (-19.31) | 87% | |||||||||
PROJECTED RECORD 15-641.2% 26-529.1% 34-720.9% 47-46.6% 53-82.2% Chance of winning all 4 remaining games: 6.6% | ||||||||||||||||