| Date | QB1 Out? |
Rank | Away Team | Record | Score | QB1 Out? |
Rank | Home Team | Record | Score | Neutral Site | Playoff Game | Outcome | Expected Outcome | Expected Probability |
Actual Deviation |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9/12/2026 | Morehead State | 7 | #135 | @ Austin Peay | 6-2 | 63 | L | Austin Peay (-33.21) | 0% | -22.79 | ||||||
| 9/19/2026 | Morehead State | 2 | #199 | @ Western Illinois | 2-4 | 59 | L | Western Illinois (-16.09) | 0% | -40.91 | ||||||
| 10/3/2026 | #257 | Valparaiso | 2-4 | 37 | @ Morehead State | 3 | L | Morehead State (+1.22) | 0% | -32.78 | ||||||
| 10/10/2026 | Morehead State | 28 | #212 | @ Dayton | 3-1 | 56 | L | Dayton (-26.90) | 0% | -1.10 | ||||||
| 10/17/2026 | Morehead State | 31 | #265 | @ Davidson | 2-4 | 34 | L | Davidson (-0.43) | 0% | -2.57 | ||||||
| 10/24/2026 | #263 | Stetson | 0-6 | @ Morehead State | L | Morehead State (+3.02) | 42% | |||||||||
| 10/31/2026 | #251 | Drake | 2-4 | @ Morehead State | L | Morehead State (+15.64) | 17% | |||||||||
| 11/7/2026 | Morehead State | #232 | @ Marist | 3-3 | L | Marist (-24.59) | 8% | |||||||||
| 11/14/2026 | #247 | Presbyterian | 3-3 | @ Morehead State | L | Morehead State (+12.15) | 23% | |||||||||
| 11/21/2026 | Morehead State | #203 | @ Butler | 3-2 | L | Butler (-31.55) | 4% | |||||||||
PROJECTED RECORD 11-944.5% 20-1032.4% 32-819.4% 43-73.4% 54-60.2% 65-5<0.1% Chance of winning all 5 remaining games: <0.1% | ||||||||||||||||