| Date | QB1 Out? |
Rank | Away Team | Record | Score | QB1 Out? |
Rank | Home Team | Record | Score | Neutral Site | Playoff Game | Outcome | Expected Outcome | Expected Probability |
Actual Deviation |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9/19/2026 | Dayton | 17 | #222 | @ Eastern Kentucky | 2-5 | 14 | W | Eastern Kentucky (-5.92) | 100% | 8.92 | ||||||
| 10/3/2026 | Dayton | 22 | #251 | @ Drake | 2-4 | 30 | L | Drake (+0.31) | 0% | -8.31 | ||||||
| 10/10/2026 | #266 | Morehead State | 0-5 | 28 | @ Dayton | 56 | W | Dayton (-26.90) | 100% | 1.10 | ||||||
| 10/17/2026 | Dayton | 19 | #203 | @ Butler | 3-2 | 9 | W | Butler (-8.20) | 100% | 18.20 | ||||||
| 10/24/2026 | #245 | San Diego | 3-4 | @ Dayton | W | Dayton (-7.55) | 68% | |||||||||
| 10/31/2026 | Dayton | #263 | @ Stetson | 0-6 | W | Stetson (+16.90) | 84% | |||||||||
| 11/7/2026 | #257 | Valparaiso | 2-4 | @ Dayton | W | Dayton (-9.43) | 72% | |||||||||
| 11/14/2026 | #265 | Davidson | 2-4 | @ Dayton | W | Dayton (-28.09) | 94% | |||||||||
| 11/21/2026 | Dayton | #247 | @ Presbyterian | 3-3 | W | Presbyterian (+6.67) | 66% | |||||||||
PROJECTED RECORD 17-241.7% 28-125.8% 36-325.0% 45-46.7% 54-50.8% 63-6<0.1% Chance of winning all 5 remaining games: 25.8% | ||||||||||||||||