| Date | QB1 Out? |
Rank | Away Team | Record | Score | QB1 Out? |
Rank | Home Team | Record | Score | Neutral Site | Playoff Game | Outcome | Expected Outcome | Expected Probability |
Actual Deviation |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8/30/2026 | #154 | Jackson State | 4-1 | 26 | @ Tennessee State | 24 | L | Tennessee State (+9.76) | 0% | 7.76 | ||||||
| 9/5/2026 | Tennessee State | 3 | #13 | @ Georgia | 6-1 | 63 | L | Georgia (-57.39) | 0% | -2.61 | ||||||
| 9/12/2026 | Tennessee State | 3 | #144 | @ Alabama A&M | 4-2 | 30 | L | Alabama A&M (-2.30) | 0% | -24.70 | ||||||
| 9/19/2026 | Tennessee State | 29 | #227 | @ Florida A&M | 1-5 | 26 | W | Florida A&M (-1.97) | 100% | 4.97 | ||||||
| 10/3/2026 | Tennessee State | 21 | #199 | @ Western Illinois | 2-4 | 28 | L | Western Illinois (-14.29) | 0% | 7.29 | ||||||
| 10/10/2026 | #191 | UT Martin | 3-4 | 42 | @ Tennessee State | 28 | L | Tennessee State (+7.81) | 0% | -6.19 | ||||||
| 10/17/2026 | #192 | Morgan State | 4-2 | 16 | @ Tennessee State | 25 | W | Tennessee State (+1.74) | 100% | 10.74 | ||||||
| 10/24/2026 | #201 | Charleston Southern | 2-4 | @ Tennessee State | L | Tennessee State (+2.14) | 45% | |||||||||
| 10/31/2026 | Tennessee State | #219 | @ Lindenwood | 2-4 | L | Lindenwood (-3.97) | 40% | |||||||||
| 11/7/2026 | #155 | Southeast Missouri State | 4-3 | @ Tennessee State | L | Tennessee State (+8.73) | 29% | |||||||||
| 11/14/2026 | #220 | Eastern Illinois | 2-5 | @ Tennessee State | W | Tennessee State (-1.16) | 53% | |||||||||
| 11/21/2026 | Tennessee State | #217 | @ Gardner-Webb | 2-6 | L | Gardner-Webb (-8.56) | 30% | |||||||||
PROJECTED RECORD 14-835.3% 23-926.6% 35-722.6% 42-107.7% 56-67.0% 67-50.8% Chance of winning all 5 remaining games: 0.8% | ||||||||||||||||