| Date | QB1 Out? |
Rank | Away Team | Record | Score | QB1 Out? |
Rank | Home Team | Record | Score | Neutral Site | Playoff Game | Outcome | Expected Outcome | Expected Probability |
Actual Deviation |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9/6/2026 | #1 | UCLA | 6-0 | 45 | @ California | 24 | L | California (-1.71) | 0% | -22.71 | ||||||
| 9/12/2026 | California | 21 | #118 | @ Syracuse | 2-4 | 18 | W | Syracuse (-10.07) | 100% | 13.07 | ||||||
| 9/19/2026 | #255 | Wagner | 0-6 | 7 | @ California | 49 | W | California (-44.86) | 100% | -2.86 | ||||||
| 9/26/2026 | #35 | Clemson | 4-2 | 24 | @ California | 10 | L | California (+1.12) | 0% | -12.88 | ||||||
| 10/3/2026 | California | 31 | #82 | @ UNLV | 4-3 | 39 | L | UNLV (-3.81) | 0% | -4.19 | ||||||
| 10/10/2026 | #83 | Virginia Tech | 5-2 | 20 | ✓ | @ California | 25 | W | California (+8.50) | 100% | 13.50 | |||||
| 10/17/2026 | #19 | Wake Forest | 6-1 | 41 | @ California | 7 | L | California (+13.07) | 0% | -20.93 | ||||||
| 10/24/2026 | California | #44 | @ SMU | 5-1 | L | SMU (-12.33) | 23% | |||||||||
| 10/31/2026 | California | #77 | @ NC State | 3-3 | L | NC State (-8.04) | 31% | |||||||||
| 11/14/2026 | California | #86 | @ Virginia | 4-3 | L | Virginia (-9.18) | 29% | |||||||||
| 11/21/2026 | #103 | Stanford | 3-4 | @ California | W | California (-9.67) | 72% | |||||||||
| 11/28/2026 | #59 | Pittsburgh | 5-2 | @ California | L | California (+9.03) | 29% | |||||||||
PROJECTED RECORD 15-737.1% 24-831.3% 36-619.2% 43-97.5% 57-54.6% 68-40.4% Chance of winning all 5 remaining games: 0.4% | ||||||||||||||||