| Date | QB1 Out? |
Rank | Away Team | Record | Score | QB1 Out? |
Rank | Home Team | Record | Score | Neutral Site | Playoff Game | Outcome | Expected Outcome | Expected Probability |
Actual Deviation |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8/28/2026 | #232 | Marist | 3-3 | 21 | @ New Haven | 22 | W | New Haven (-0.32) | 100% | 0.68 | ||||||
| 9/5/2026 | #231 | Stonehill | 2-5 | 21 | @ New Haven | 3 | L | New Haven (-2.96) | 0% | -20.96 | ||||||
| 9/12/2026 | New Haven | 14 | #90 | @ South Dakota State | 5-2 | 57 | L | South Dakota State (-35.65) | 0% | -7.35 | ||||||
| 9/19/2026 | #167 | Brown | 2-3 | 17 | @ New Haven | 10 | L | New Haven (+11.77) | 0% | 4.77 | ||||||
| 9/26/2026 | New Haven | 10 | #244 | @ Merrimack | 2-5 | 17 | L | Merrimack (-5.87) | 0% | -1.13 | ||||||
| 10/3/2026 | New Haven | 17 | #135 | @ Austin Peay | 6-2 | 42 | L | Austin Peay (-34.95) | 0% | 9.95 | ||||||
| 10/17/2026 | New Haven | 26 | #238 | @ Robert Morris | 2-4 | 15 | W | Robert Morris (-3.33) | 100% | 14.33 | ||||||
| 10/24/2026 | New Haven | #187 | @ Central Connecticut | 2-3 | L | Central Connecticut (-9.11) | 29% | |||||||||
| 10/31/2026 | #229 | Duquesne | 1-4 | @ New Haven | W | New Haven (-3.11) | 58% | |||||||||
| 11/7/2026 | #215 | Long Island University | 3-5 | @ New Haven | W | New Haven (-0.74) | 52% | |||||||||
| 11/14/2026 | New Haven | #255 | @ Wagner | 0-6 | W | Wagner (+6.70) | 66% | |||||||||
| 11/21/2026 | New Haven | #249 | @ Mercyhurst | 0-6 | L | Mercyhurst (-0.55) | 49% | |||||||||
PROJECTED RECORD 15-732.7% 24-831.7% 36-615.8% 43-914.5% 57-52.8% 62-102.5% Chance of winning all 5 remaining games: 2.8% | ||||||||||||||||