| Date | QB1 Out? |
Rank | Away Team | Record | Score | QB1 Out? |
Rank | Home Team | Record | Score | Neutral Site | Playoff Game | Outcome | Expected Outcome | Expected Probability |
Actual Deviation |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8/29/2026 | #263 | Stetson | 0-6 | 7 | @ South Dakota State | 70 | W | South Dakota State (-49.03) | 100% | 13.97 | ||||||
| 9/6/2026 | South Dakota State | 18 | #22 | @ Northwestern | 5-1 | 34 | L | Northwestern (-11.12) | 0% | -4.88 | ||||||
| 9/12/2026 | #241 | New Haven | 2-5 | 14 | @ South Dakota State | 57 | W | South Dakota State (-35.65) | 100% | 7.35 | ||||||
| 9/19/2026 | #72 | Youngstown State | 6-2 | 20 | @ South Dakota State | 27 | W | South Dakota State (-5.28) | 100% | 1.72 | ||||||
| 9/26/2026 | #220 | Eastern Illinois | 2-5 | 7 | @ South Dakota State | 42 | W | South Dakota State (-30.40) | 100% | 4.60 | ||||||
| 10/3/2026 | South Dakota State | 31 | #114 | @ Illinois State | 4-2 | 14 | W | Illinois State (+1.54) | 100% | 15.46 | ||||||
| 10/17/2026 | South Dakota State | 10 | #98 | @ North Dakota | 6-2 | 21 | L | North Dakota (+5.49) | 0% | -16.49 | ||||||
| 10/24/2026 | #246 | Murray State | 1-6 | @ South Dakota State | W | South Dakota State (-33.33) | 97% | |||||||||
| 10/31/2026 | #92 | South Dakota | 6-2 | @ South Dakota State | W | South Dakota State (-5.27) | 63% | |||||||||
| 11/7/2026 | South Dakota State | #127 | @ Northern Iowa | 3-3 | W | Northern Iowa (+7.20) | 67% | |||||||||
| 11/14/2026 | South Dakota State | #171 | @ Southern Illinois | 3-5 | W | Southern Illinois (+10.25) | 74% | |||||||||
| 11/21/2026 | #188 | Indiana State | 2-5 | @ South Dakota State | W | South Dakota State (-21.70) | 90% | |||||||||
PROJECTED RECORD 19-342.8% 210-227.0% 38-424.1% 47-55.7% 56-60.5% 65-7<0.1% Chance of winning all 5 remaining games: 27.0% | ||||||||||||||||