| Date | QB1 Out? |
Rank | Away Team | Record | Score | QB1 Out? |
Rank | Home Team | Record | Score | Neutral Site | Playoff Game | Outcome | Expected Outcome | Expected Probability |
Actual Deviation |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8/29/2026 | #187 | Central Connecticut | 2-3 | 20 | @ South Dakota | 59 | W | South Dakota (-16.72) | 100% | 22.28 | ||||||
| 9/6/2026 | South Dakota | 38 | #197 | @ Northern Colorado | 2-5 | 23 | W | Northern Colorado (+11.42) | 100% | 3.58 | ||||||
| 9/12/2026 | #186 | Eastern Washington | 2-6 | 23 | @ South Dakota | 41 | W | South Dakota (-15.47) | 100% | 2.53 | ||||||
| 9/20/2026 | South Dakota | 24 | #20 | @ Boise State | 5-1 | 38 | L | Boise State (-18.84) | 0% | 4.84 | ||||||
| 9/26/2026 | South Dakota | 28 | #72 | @ Youngstown State | 6-2 | 47 | L | Youngstown State (-2.49) | 0% | -16.51 | ||||||
| 10/3/2026 | #188 | Indiana State | 2-5 | 14 | @ South Dakota | 44 | W | South Dakota (-16.43) | 100% | 13.57 | ||||||
| 10/10/2026 | #171 | Southern Illinois | 3-5 | 10 | @ South Dakota | 31 | W | South Dakota (-10.01) | 100% | 10.99 | ||||||
| 10/17/2026 | South Dakota | 48 | #246 | @ Murray State | 1-6 | 20 | W | Murray State (+24.72) | 100% | 3.28 | ||||||
| 10/24/2026 | #98 | North Dakota | 6-2 | @ South Dakota | W | South Dakota (-5.54) | 64% | |||||||||
| 10/31/2026 | South Dakota | #90 | @ South Dakota State | 5-2 | L | South Dakota State (-5.27) | 37% | |||||||||
| 11/14/2026 | #127 | Northern Iowa | 3-3 | @ South Dakota | W | South Dakota (-13.01) | 79% | |||||||||
| 11/21/2026 | South Dakota | #114 | @ Illinois State | 4-2 | L | Illinois State (-1.63) | 46% | |||||||||
PROJECTED RECORD 18-439.0% 29-331.6% 37-518.2% 410-28.5% 56-62.7% Chance of winning all 4 remaining games: 8.5% | ||||||||||||||||