| Date | QB1 Out? |
Rank | Away Team | Record | Score | QB1 Out? |
Rank | Home Team | Record | Score | Neutral Site | Playoff Game | Outcome | Expected Outcome | Expected Probability |
Actual Deviation |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8/28/2026 | #215 | Long Island University | 3-5 | 21 | @ North Dakota | 42 | W | North Dakota (-27.41) | 100% | -6.41 | ||||||
| 9/5/2026 | #202 | St. Thomas (MN) | 3-2 | 26 | @ North Dakota | 62 | W | North Dakota (-21.36) | 100% | 14.64 | ||||||
| 9/13/2026 | North Dakota | 47 | #184 | @ Portland State | 2-5 | 23 | W | Portland State (+20.11) | 100% | 3.89 | ||||||
| 9/19/2026 | North Dakota | 7 | #24 | @ Nebraska | 5-2 | 34 | L | Nebraska (-18.68) | 0% | -8.32 | ||||||
| 9/26/2026 | North Dakota | 42 | #188 | @ Indiana State | 2-5 | 35 | W | Indiana State (+16.40) | 100% | -9.40 | ||||||
| 10/3/2026 | #246 | Murray State | 1-6 | 28 | @ North Dakota | 55 | W | North Dakota (-36.28) | 100% | -9.28 | ||||||
| 10/10/2026 | North Dakota | 17 | #127 | @ Northern Iowa | 3-3 | 24 | L | Northern Iowa (+4.59) | 0% | -11.59 | ||||||
| 10/17/2026 | #90 | South Dakota State | 5-2 | 10 | @ North Dakota | 21 | W | North Dakota (+5.49) | 100% | 16.49 | ||||||
| 10/24/2026 | North Dakota | #92 | @ South Dakota | 6-2 | L | South Dakota (-5.54) | 36% | |||||||||
| 10/31/2026 | North Dakota | #72 | @ Youngstown State | 6-2 | L | Youngstown State (-10.37) | 26% | |||||||||
| 11/7/2026 | #114 | Illinois State | 4-2 | @ North Dakota | W | North Dakota (-2.77) | 57% | |||||||||
| 11/21/2026 | #171 | Southern Illinois | 3-5 | @ North Dakota | W | North Dakota (-12.98) | 79% | |||||||||
PROJECTED RECORD 18-441.9% 27-525.6% 39-323.9% 46-64.3% 510-24.3% Chance of winning all 4 remaining games: 4.3% | ||||||||||||||||