| Date | QB1 Out? |
Rank | Away Team | Record | Score | QB1 Out? |
Rank | Home Team | Record | Score | Neutral Site | Playoff Game | Outcome | Expected Outcome | Expected Probability |
Actual Deviation |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8/27/2026 | #220 | Eastern Illinois | 2-5 | 28 | @ Murray State | 14 | L | Murray State (-4.61) | 0% | -18.61 | ||||||
| 9/5/2026 | Murray State | 14 | #159 | @ Middle Tennessee | 3-3 | 38 | L | Middle Tennessee (-19.70) | 0% | -4.30 | ||||||
| 9/12/2026 | #257 | Valparaiso | 2-4 | 18 | @ Murray State | 27 | W | Murray State (-14.68) | 100% | -5.68 | ||||||
| 9/19/2026 | Murray State | 0 | #32 | @ Oklahoma State | 4-2 | 59 | L | Oklahoma State (-29.92) | 0% | -29.08 | ||||||
| 9/26/2026 | #171 | Southern Illinois | 3-5 | 46 | @ Murray State | 6 | L | Murray State (+17.44) | 0% | -22.56 | ||||||
| 10/3/2026 | Murray State | 28 | #98 | @ North Dakota | 6-2 | 55 | L | North Dakota (-36.28) | 0% | 9.28 | ||||||
| 10/17/2026 | #92 | South Dakota | 6-2 | 48 | @ Murray State | 20 | L | Murray State (+24.72) | 0% | -3.28 | ||||||
| 10/24/2026 | Murray State | #90 | @ South Dakota State | 5-2 | L | South Dakota State (-33.33) | 3% | |||||||||
| 10/31/2026 | Murray State | #114 | @ Illinois State | 4-2 | L | Illinois State (-29.01) | 5% | |||||||||
| 11/7/2026 | #72 | Youngstown State | 6-2 | @ Murray State | L | Murray State (+27.89) | 6% | |||||||||
| 11/14/2026 | Murray State | #188 | @ Indiana State | 2-5 | L | Indiana State (-12.95) | 21% | |||||||||
| 11/21/2026 | #127 | Northern Iowa | 3-3 | @ Murray State | L | Murray State (+17.13) | 15% | |||||||||
PROJECTED RECORD 11-1157.3% 22-1034.8% 33-97.2% 44-80.6% 55-7<0.1% 66-6<0.1% Chance of winning all 5 remaining games: <0.1% | ||||||||||||||||