| Date | QB1 Out? |
Rank | Away Team | Record | Score | QB1 Out? |
Rank | Home Team | Record | Score | Neutral Site | Playoff Game | Outcome | Expected Outcome | Expected Probability |
Actual Deviation |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9/6/2026 | Illinois State | 41 | #199 | @ Western Illinois | 2-4 | 10 | W | Western Illinois (+14.54) | 100% | 16.46 | ||||||
| 9/12/2026 | Illinois State | 28 | #175 | @ Northern Illinois | 0-6 | 24 | W | Northern Illinois (+6.82) | 100% | -2.82 | ||||||
| 9/19/2026 | #220 | Eastern Illinois | 2-5 | 13 | @ Illinois State | 49 | W | Illinois State (-27.40) | 100% | 8.60 | ||||||
| 9/26/2026 | Illinois State | 21 | #127 | @ Northern Iowa | 3-3 | 28 | L | Northern Iowa (+10.97) | 0% | -17.97 | ||||||
| 10/3/2026 | #90 | South Dakota State | 5-2 | 31 | @ Illinois State | 14 | L | Illinois State (+1.54) | 0% | -15.46 | ||||||
| 10/17/2026 | Illinois State | 35 | #171 | @ Southern Illinois | 3-5 | 14 | W | Southern Illinois (+3.91) | 100% | 17.09 | ||||||
| 10/24/2026 | #188 | Indiana State | 2-5 | @ Illinois State | W | Illinois State (-16.31) | 84% | |||||||||
| 10/31/2026 | #246 | Murray State | 1-6 | @ Illinois State | W | Illinois State (-29.01) | 95% | |||||||||
| 11/7/2026 | Illinois State | #98 | @ North Dakota | 6-2 | L | North Dakota (-2.77) | 43% | |||||||||
| 11/14/2026 | Illinois State | #72 | @ Youngstown State | 6-2 | L | Youngstown State (-8.05) | 31% | |||||||||
| 11/21/2026 | #92 | South Dakota | 6-2 | @ Illinois State | W | Illinois State (-1.63) | 54% | |||||||||
PROJECTED RECORD 17-440.5% 28-326.6% 36-523.1% 49-25.7% 55-64.0% 64-70.2% Chance of winning all 5 remaining games: 5.7% | ||||||||||||||||