| Date | QB1 Out? |
Rank | Away Team | Record | Score | QB1 Out? |
Rank | Home Team | Record | Score | Neutral Site | Playoff Game | Outcome | Expected Outcome | Expected Probability |
Actual Deviation |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8/29/2026 | #77 | NC State | 3-3 | 8 | @ Virginia | 34 | W | Virginia (-5.08) | 100% | 20.92 | ||||||
| 9/11/2026 | #242 | Norfolk State | 2-3 | 3 | @ Virginia | 59 | W | Virginia (-53.88) | 100% | 2.12 | ||||||
| 9/19/2026 | #68 | West Virginia | 4-3 | 38 | Virginia | 27 | ✓ | L | Virginia (-13.24) | 0% | -24.24 | |||||
| 9/26/2026 | #166 | Delaware | 2-4 | 3 | @ Virginia | 42 | W | Virginia (-20.23) | 100% | 18.77 | ||||||
| 10/3/2026 | Virginia | 7 | #70 | @ Florida State | 3-4 | 38 | L | Florida State (+3.87) | 0% | -34.87 | ||||||
| 10/10/2026 | ✓ | #118 | Syracuse | 2-4 | 25 | @ Virginia | 28 | W | Virginia (-10.42) | 100% | -7.42 | |||||
| 10/17/2026 | Virginia | 13 | #44 | @ SMU | 5-1 | 23 | L | SMU (-4.65) | 0% | -5.35 | ||||||
| 10/23/2026 | #48 | Duke | 4-2 | @ Virginia | W | Virginia (-0.24) | 51% | |||||||||
| 10/31/2026 | Virginia | #19 | @ Wake Forest | 6-1 | L | Wake Forest (-13.82) | 20% | |||||||||
| 11/14/2026 | #95 | California | 3-4 | @ Virginia | W | Virginia (-9.18) | 71% | |||||||||
| 11/21/2026 | #29 | North Carolina | 4-2 | @ Virginia | L | Virginia (+1.96) | 45% | |||||||||
| 11/28/2026 | Virginia | #83 | @ Virginia Tech | 5-2 | L | Virginia Tech (-2.44) | 44% | |||||||||
PROJECTED RECORD 16-635.2% 27-529.9% 35-718.7% 48-411.3% 54-83.5% 69-31.4% Chance of winning all 5 remaining games: 1.4% | ||||||||||||||||