| Date | QB1 Out? |
Rank | Away Team | Record | Score | QB1 Out? |
Rank | Home Team | Record | Score | Neutral Site | Playoff Game | Outcome | Expected Outcome | Expected Probability |
Actual Deviation |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8/29/2026 | UC Davis | 31 | #184 | @ Portland State | 2-5 | 24 | W | Portland State (+15.72) | 100% | -8.72 | ||||||
| 9/6/2026 | UC Davis | 49 | #245 | @ San Diego | 3-4 | 17 | W | San Diego (+6.02) | 100% | 25.98 | ||||||
| 9/12/2026 | UC Davis | 10 | #44 | @ SMU | 5-1 | 56 | L | SMU (-23.47) | 0% | -22.53 | ||||||
| 9/20/2026 | #263 | Stetson | 0-6 | 7 | @ UC Davis | 45 | W | UC Davis (-44.15) | 100% | -6.15 | ||||||
| 9/27/2026 | #130 | Montana | 5-3 | 62 | @ UC Davis | 22 | L | UC Davis (+2.25) | 0% | -37.75 | ||||||
| 10/4/2026 | #186 | Eastern Washington | 2-6 | 38 | @ UC Davis | 49 | W | UC Davis (-4.48) | 100% | 6.52 | ||||||
| 10/18/2026 | UC Davis | 17 | #177 | @ Southern Utah | 3-4 | 38 | L | Southern Utah (-3.89) | 0% | -17.11 | ||||||
| 10/24/2026 | #197 | Northern Colorado | 2-5 | @ UC Davis | L | UC Davis (+1.58) | 46% | |||||||||
| 10/31/2026 | UC Davis | #149 | @ Weber State | 5-3 | L | Weber State (-7.17) | 33% | |||||||||
| 11/8/2026 | #237 | Utah Tech | 0-7 | @ UC Davis | W | UC Davis (-9.23) | 72% | |||||||||
| 11/14/2026 | UC Davis | #152 | @ Idaho | 2-5 | L | Idaho (-9.26) | 28% | |||||||||
| 11/21/2026 | #190 | Cal Poly | 3-4 | @ UC Davis | W | UC Davis (-0.77) | 52% | |||||||||
PROJECTED RECORD 16-635.2% 27-529.5% 35-718.9% 48-411.3% 54-83.5% 69-31.6% Chance of winning all 5 remaining games: 1.6% | ||||||||||||||||