| Date | QB1 Out? |
Rank | Away Team | Record | Score | QB1 Out? |
Rank | Home Team | Record | Score | Neutral Site | Playoff Game | Outcome | Expected Outcome | Expected Probability |
Actual Deviation |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8/30/2026 | Montana State | 54 | #237 | @ Utah Tech | 0-7 | 0 | W | Utah Tech (+22.00) | 100% | 32.00 | ||||||
| 9/6/2026 | #203 | Butler | 3-2 | 24 | @ Montana State | 51 | W | Montana State (-45.32) | 100% | -18.32 | ||||||
| 9/13/2026 | Montana State | 20 | #131 | @ Nevada | 2-4 | 7 | W | Nevada (+7.93) | 100% | 5.07 | ||||||
| 9/19/2026 | #187 | Central Connecticut | 2-3 | 30 | @ Montana State | 35 | W | Montana State (-43.84) | 100% | -38.84 | ||||||
| 9/27/2026 | #100 | Northern Arizona | 6-2 | 14 | @ Montana State | 28 | W | Montana State (-22.86) | 100% | -8.86 | ||||||
| 10/3/2026 | Montana State | 34 | #152 | @ Idaho | 2-5 | 35 | L | Idaho (+15.83) | 0% | -16.83 | ||||||
| 10/17/2026 | Montana State | 56 | #186 | @ Eastern Washington | 2-6 | 20 | W | Eastern Washington (+11.79) | 100% | 24.21 | ||||||
| 10/24/2026 | #149 | Weber State | 5-3 | @ Montana State | W | Montana State (-19.06) | 87% | |||||||||
| 10/31/2026 | #190 | Cal Poly | 3-4 | @ Montana State | W | Montana State (-22.95) | 91% | |||||||||
| 11/7/2026 | Montana State | #164 | @ Idaho State | 4-3 | W | Idaho State (+9.41) | 72% | |||||||||
| 11/14/2026 | Montana State | #197 | @ Northern Colorado | 2-5 | W | Northern Colorado (+13.94) | 80% | |||||||||
| 11/21/2026 | #130 | Montana | 5-3 | @ Montana State | W | Montana State (-12.94) | 78% | |||||||||
PROJECTED RECORD 110-241.6% 211-135.8% 39-318.4% 48-43.9% 57-50.4% 66-6<0.1% Chance of winning all 5 remaining games: 35.8% | ||||||||||||||||