| Date | QB1 Out? |
Rank | Away Team | Record | Score | QB1 Out? |
Rank | Home Team | Record | Score | Neutral Site | Playoff Game | Outcome | Expected Outcome | Expected Probability |
Actual Deviation |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8/29/2026 | #152 | Idaho | 2-5 | 34 | @ Cal Poly | 38 | W | Cal Poly (-2.74) | 100% | 1.26 | ||||||
| 9/13/2026 | Cal Poly | 20 | #110 | @ San José State | 4-3 | 30 | L | San José State (-10.48) | 0% | 0.48 | ||||||
| 9/20/2026 | #245 | San Diego | 3-4 | 38 | @ Cal Poly | 35 | L | Cal Poly (-18.11) | 0% | -21.11 | ||||||
| 9/26/2026 | Cal Poly | 31 | #186 | @ Eastern Washington | 2-6 | 27 | W | Eastern Washington (-3.44) | 100% | 7.44 | ||||||
| 10/4/2026 | #149 | Weber State | 5-3 | 42 | @ Cal Poly | 34 | L | Cal Poly (-6.02) | 0% | -14.02 | ||||||
| 10/10/2026 | Cal Poly | 25 | #164 | @ Idaho State | 4-3 | 24 | W | Idaho State (-12.48) | 100% | 13.48 | ||||||
| 10/18/2026 | Cal Poly | 18 | #197 | @ Northern Colorado | 2-5 | 28 | L | Northern Colorado (-1.54) | 0% | -8.46 | ||||||
| 10/24/2026 | #237 | Utah Tech | 0-7 | @ Cal Poly | W | Cal Poly (-10.20) | 74% | |||||||||
| 10/31/2026 | Cal Poly | #84 | @ Montana State | 6-1 | L | Montana State (-22.95) | 9% | |||||||||
| 11/7/2026 | #100 | Northern Arizona | 6-2 | @ Cal Poly | L | Cal Poly (+5.22) | 37% | |||||||||
| 11/21/2026 | Cal Poly | #181 | @ UC Davis | 4-3 | L | UC Davis (-0.77) | 48% | |||||||||
PROJECTED RECORD 15-640.8% 24-734.5% 36-515.7% 43-87.8% 57-41.2% Chance of winning all 4 remaining games: 1.2% | ||||||||||||||||