| Date | QB1 Out? |
Rank | Away Team | Record | Score | QB1 Out? |
Rank | Home Team | Record | Score | Neutral Site | Playoff Game | Outcome | Expected Outcome | Expected Probability |
Actual Deviation |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9/5/2026 | Arkansas State | 24 | #55 | @ Memphis | 5-2 | 42 | L | Memphis (-16.73) | 0% | -1.27 | ||||||
| 9/12/2026 | #252 | West Georgia | 0-6 | 7 | @ Arkansas State | 52 | W | Arkansas State (-18.60) | 100% | 26.40 | ||||||
| 9/20/2026 | Arkansas State | 7 | #45 | @ TCU | 3-3 | 31 | L | TCU (-17.72) | 0% | -6.28 | ||||||
| 9/26/2026 | #172 | Kennesaw State | 1-5 | 14 | @ Arkansas State | 17 | W | Arkansas State (-4.86) | 100% | -1.86 | ||||||
| 10/3/2026 | Arkansas State | 20 | #54 | @ Louisiana | 5-2 | 23 | L | Louisiana (-6.61) | 0% | 3.61 | ||||||
| 10/8/2026 | #67 | South Alabama | 4-2 | 56 | @ Arkansas State | 49 | L | Arkansas State (-4.61) | 0% | -11.61 | ||||||
| 10/17/2026 | Arkansas State | 23 | #189 | @ Southern Miss | 1-5 | 13 | W | Southern Miss (+4.22) | 100% | 5.78 | ||||||
| 10/24/2026 | #91 | Georgia State | 4-2 | @ Arkansas State | L | Arkansas State (+1.10) | 47% | |||||||||
| 11/7/2026 | #196 | UL Monroe | 0-6 | @ Arkansas State | W | Arkansas State (-19.83) | 88% | |||||||||
| 11/14/2026 | Arkansas State | #157 | @ Coastal Carolina | 2-5 | W | Coastal Carolina (+5.13) | 63% | |||||||||
| 11/21/2026 | Arkansas State | #51 | @ Louisiana Tech | 4-2 | L | Louisiana Tech (-10.61) | 26% | |||||||||
| 11/28/2026 | #126 | Troy | 3-3 | @ Arkansas State | W | Arkansas State (-7.17) | 67% | |||||||||
PROJECTED RECORD 16-638.5% 25-725.8% 37-523.5% 44-87.1% 58-44.5% 63-90.6% Chance of winning all 5 remaining games: 4.5% | ||||||||||||||||