| Date | QB1 Out? |
Rank | Away Team | Record | Score | QB1 Out? |
Rank | Home Team | Record | Score | Neutral Site | Playoff Game | Outcome | Expected Outcome | Expected Probability |
Actual Deviation |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9/5/2026 | #254 | Maine | 1-6 | 3 | @ App State | 55 | W | App State (-14.01) | 100% | 37.99 | ||||||
| 9/12/2026 | App State | 27 | #128 | @ East Carolina | 3-3 | 24 | W | East Carolina (-9.04) | 100% | 12.04 | ||||||
| 9/19/2026 | #176 | Charlotte | 1-6 | 21 | @ App State | 26 | W | App State (-18.91) | 100% | -13.91 | ||||||
| 9/26/2026 | App State | 31 | #77 | @ NC State | 3-3 | 41 | L | NC State (-18.26) | 0% | 8.26 | ||||||
| 10/10/2026 | #160 | Old Dominion | 2-5 | 10 | @ App State | 3 | L | App State (-7.43) | 0% | -14.43 | ||||||
| 10/17/2026 | App State | 35 | #157 | @ Coastal Carolina | 2-5 | 32 | W | Coastal Carolina (+1.28) | 100% | 1.72 | ||||||
| 10/22/2026 | #26 | James Madison | 7-0 | @ App State | L | App State (+16.29) | 16% | |||||||||
| 10/31/2026 | App State | #94 | @ Georgia Southern | 3-4 | L | Georgia Southern (-12.30) | 23% | |||||||||
| 11/7/2026 | #91 | Georgia State | 4-2 | @ App State | L | App State (+5.86) | 36% | |||||||||
| 11/14/2026 | App State | #146 | @ Marshall | 3-3 | W | Marshall (+3.41) | 58% | |||||||||
| 11/21/2026 | #196 | UL Monroe | 0-6 | @ App State | W | App State (-13.58) | 80% | |||||||||
| 11/27/2026 | App State | #67 | @ South Alabama | 4-2 | L | South Alabama (-7.36) | 32% | |||||||||
PROJECTED RECORD 16-634.3% 27-530.9% 35-716.3% 48-413.3% 59-32.7% 64-82.4% Chance of winning all 6 remaining games: 0.2% | ||||||||||||||||