| Date | QB1 Out? |
Rank | Away Team | Record | Score | QB1 Out? |
Rank | Home Team | Record | Score | Neutral Site | Playoff Game | Outcome | Expected Outcome | Expected Probability |
Actual Deviation |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9/5/2026 | #46 | Texas State | 3-3 | 7 | @ Texas | 59 | W | Texas (-17.95) | 100% | 34.05 | ||||||
| 9/12/2026 | #4 | Ohio State | 6-1 | 23 | @ Texas | 24 | W | Texas (+2.79) | 100% | 3.79 | ||||||
| 9/20/2026 | #39 | UTSA | 6-1 | 6 | @ Texas | 30 | W | Texas (-20.18) | 100% | 3.82 | ||||||
| 9/26/2026 | Texas | 20 | #17 | @ Tennessee | 6-1 | 17 | W | Tennessee (+0.11) | 100% | 2.89 | ||||||
| 10/10/2026 | Texas | 24 | #34 | Oklahoma | 3-3 | 27 | ✓ | L | Oklahoma (+8.91) | 0% | -11.91 | |||||
| 10/17/2026 | ✓ | #18 | Florida | 5-2 | 27 | @ Texas | 24 | L | Texas (-12.00) | 0% | -15.00 | |||||
| 10/24/2026 | #11 | Ole Miss | 5-1 | @ Texas | W | Texas (-5.24) | 63% | |||||||||
| 10/31/2026 | #28 | Mississippi State | 4-2 | @ Texas | W | Texas (-11.95) | 77% | |||||||||
| 11/7/2026 | Texas | #31 | @ Missouri | 5-2 | W | Missouri (+4.42) | 61% | |||||||||
| 11/14/2026 | Texas | #5 | @ LSU | 5-2 | L | LSU (-7.83) | 31% | |||||||||
| 11/21/2026 | #66 | Arkansas | 3-4 | @ Texas | W | Texas (-21.81) | 90% | |||||||||
| 11/28/2026 | Texas | #41 | @ Texas A&M | 4-3 | W | Texas A&M (+6.25) | 65% | |||||||||
PROJECTED RECORD 18-435.5% 27-525.1% 39-323.6% 46-68.9% 510-25.4% 65-71.5% Chance of winning all 6 remaining games: 5.4% | ||||||||||||||||