| Date | QB1 Out? |
Rank | Away Team | Record | Score | QB1 Out? |
Rank | Home Team | Record | Score | Neutral Site | Playoff Game | Outcome | Expected Outcome | Expected Probability |
Actual Deviation |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9/5/2026 | Texas State | 7 | #9 | @ Texas | 4-2 | 59 | L | Texas (-17.95) | 0% | -34.05 | ||||||
| 9/12/2026 | #39 | UTSA | 6-1 | 31 | @ Texas State | 26 | L | Texas State (+8.25) | 0% | 3.25 | ||||||
| 9/19/2026 | #42 | North Texas | 4-2 | 35 | @ Texas State | 49 | W | Texas State (+13.56) | 100% | 27.56 | ||||||
| 9/26/2026 | #145 | Incarnate Word | 2-4 | 10 | @ Texas State | 63 | W | Texas State (-20.20) | 100% | 32.80 | ||||||
| 10/4/2026 | Texas State | 29 | #81 | @ San Diego State | 3-4 | 31 | L | San Diego State (+0.82) | 0% | -2.82 | ||||||
| 10/16/2026 | #99 | Colorado State | 2-4 | 27 | @ Texas State | 66 | W | Texas State (-9.12) | 100% | 29.88 | ||||||
| 10/24/2026 | #107 | Utah State | 2-4 | @ Texas State | W | Texas State (-14.64) | 81% | |||||||||
| 11/1/2026 | Texas State | #20 | @ Boise State | 5-1 | L | Boise State (-8.98) | 29% | |||||||||
| 11/8/2026 | Texas State | #30 | @ Oregon State | 5-2 | L | Oregon State (-9.35) | 28% | |||||||||
| 11/14/2026 | #76 | Fresno State | 4-3 | @ Texas State | W | Texas State (-8.32) | 70% | |||||||||
| 11/21/2026 | #139 | Washington State | 1-6 | @ Texas State | W | Texas State (-14.35) | 81% | |||||||||
PROJECTED RECORD 16-541.2% 25-626.0% 37-422.0% 44-76.5% 58-33.7% 63-80.6% Chance of winning all 5 remaining games: 3.7% | ||||||||||||||||