| Date | QB1 Out? |
Rank | Away Team | Record | Score | QB1 Out? |
Rank | Home Team | Record | Score | Neutral Site | Playoff Game | Outcome | Expected Outcome | Expected Probability |
Actual Deviation |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9/6/2026 | #184 | Portland State | 2-5 | 20 | @ San Diego State | 53 | W | San Diego State (-36.19) | 100% | -3.19 | ||||||
| 9/12/2026 | San Diego State | 10 | #1 | @ UCLA | 6-0 | 28 | L | UCLA (-2.29) | 0% | -15.71 | ||||||
| 9/20/2026 | #26 | James Madison | 7-0 | 26 | @ San Diego State | 13 | L | San Diego State (+9.56) | 0% | -3.44 | ||||||
| 9/26/2026 | San Diego State | 16 | #74 | @ Toledo | 5-2 | 41 | L | Toledo (-11.04) | 0% | -13.96 | ||||||
| 10/4/2026 | #46 | Texas State | 3-3 | 29 | @ San Diego State | 31 | W | San Diego State (+0.82) | 100% | 2.82 | ||||||
| 10/10/2026 | San Diego State | 14 | #30 | @ Oregon State | 5-2 | 66 | L | Oregon State (-12.15) | 0% | -39.85 | ||||||
| 10/18/2026 | #76 | Fresno State | 4-3 | 23 | @ San Diego State | 26 | W | San Diego State (+6.66) | 100% | 9.66 | ||||||
| 10/24/2026 | San Diego State | #99 | @ Colorado State | 2-4 | L | Colorado State (-0.62) | 48% | |||||||||
| 10/31/2026 | #139 | Washington State | 1-6 | @ San Diego State | W | San Diego State (-3.00) | 57% | |||||||||
| 11/15/2026 | #107 | Utah State | 2-4 | @ San Diego State | W | San Diego State (-5.75) | 64% | |||||||||
| 11/22/2026 | San Diego State | #20 | @ Boise State | 5-1 | L | Boise State (-22.02) | 10% | |||||||||
PROJECTED RECORD 15-641.2% 24-729.7% 36-520.2% 43-87.1% 57-41.8% Chance of winning all 4 remaining games: 1.8% | ||||||||||||||||