| Date | QB1 Out? |
Rank | Away Team | Record | Score | QB1 Out? |
Rank | Home Team | Record | Score | Neutral Site | Playoff Game | Outcome | Expected Outcome | Expected Probability |
Actual Deviation |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9/5/2026 | Fresno State | 0 | #23 | @ USC | 6-1 | 39 | L | USC (-19.40) | 0% | -19.60 | ||||||
| 9/13/2026 | #224 | Sacramento State | 1-6 | 3 | @ Fresno State | 49 | W | Fresno State (-7.04) | 100% | 38.96 | ||||||
| 9/20/2026 | Fresno State | 26 | #110 | @ San José State | 4-3 | 10 | W | San José State (+4.38) | 100% | 11.62 | ||||||
| 9/27/2026 | #142 | Rice | 1-6 | 24 | @ Fresno State | 38 | W | Fresno State (-14.58) | 100% | -0.58 | ||||||
| 10/4/2026 | Fresno State | 26 | #139 | @ Washington State | 1-6 | 6 | W | Washington State (-4.24) | 100% | 24.24 | ||||||
| 10/11/2026 | #20 | Boise State | 5-1 | 38 | @ Fresno State | 31 | L | Fresno State (+8.03) | 0% | 1.03 | ||||||
| 10/18/2026 | Fresno State | 23 | #81 | @ San Diego State | 3-4 | 26 | L | San Diego State (+6.66) | 0% | -9.66 | ||||||
| 10/31/2026 | #30 | Oregon State | 5-2 | @ Fresno State | L | Fresno State (+10.70) | 26% | |||||||||
| 11/8/2026 | Fresno State | #107 | @ Utah State | 2-4 | W | Utah State (+2.62) | 57% | |||||||||
| 11/14/2026 | Fresno State | #46 | @ Texas State | 3-3 | L | Texas State (-8.32) | 30% | |||||||||
| 11/22/2026 | #99 | Colorado State | 2-4 | @ Fresno State | W | Fresno State (-9.26) | 72% | |||||||||
PROJECTED RECORD 16-541.0% 25-629.5% 37-420.0% 44-76.4% 58-33.1% Chance of winning all 4 remaining games: 3.1% | ||||||||||||||||