| Date | QB1 Out? |
Rank | Away Team | Record | Score | QB1 Out? |
Rank | Home Team | Record | Score | Neutral Site | Playoff Game | Outcome | Expected Outcome | Expected Probability |
Actual Deviation |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8/29/2026 | North Carolina | 15 | #45 | TCU | 3-3 | 10 | ✓ | W | TCU (-12.09) | 100% | 17.09 | |||||
| 9/12/2026 | #122 | East Tennessee State | 4-2 | 3 | @ North Carolina | 35 | W | North Carolina (-23.55) | 100% | 8.45 | ||||||
| 9/19/2026 | North Carolina | 20 | #35 | @ Clemson | 4-2 | 28 | L | Clemson (-5.97) | 0% | -2.03 | ||||||
| 10/3/2026 | #2 | Notre Dame | 6-1 | 37 | @ North Carolina | 26 | L | North Carolina (+21.78) | 0% | 10.78 | ||||||
| 10/10/2026 | North Carolina | 21 | #59 | @ Pittsburgh | 5-2 | 17 | W | Pittsburgh (-12.10) | 100% | 16.10 | ||||||
| 10/17/2026 | North Carolina | 24 | #48 | @ Duke | 4-2 | 20 | W | Duke (-1.11) | 100% | 5.11 | ||||||
| 10/24/2026 | #118 | Syracuse | 2-4 | @ North Carolina | W | North Carolina (-10.09) | 73% | |||||||||
| 10/31/2026 | #3 | Miami | 6-0 | @ North Carolina | L | North Carolina (+11.63) | 24% | |||||||||
| 11/7/2026 | North Carolina | #132 | @ UConn | 3-3 | W | UConn (+8.51) | 70% | |||||||||
| 11/14/2026 | #40 | Louisville | 4-3 | @ North Carolina | L | North Carolina (+0.49) | 49% | |||||||||
| 11/21/2026 | North Carolina | #86 | @ Virginia | 4-3 | W | Virginia (+1.96) | 55% | |||||||||
| 11/28/2026 | #77 | NC State | 3-3 | @ North Carolina | W | North Carolina (-9.34) | 72% | |||||||||
PROJECTED RECORD 18-431.3% 27-531.3% 36-615.9% 49-314.7% 55-74.0% 610-22.4% Chance of winning all 6 remaining games: 2.4% | ||||||||||||||||